Plot twist in France: the missing seats were counted Marine Le Pen for the absolute majority and instead it is the left that resoundingly triumphs, with the leader of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Melenchonto claim the government: «We are ready, Macron must recognize defeat, he has the duty to call the New Popular Front to govern». Emmanuel Macron and his outgoing majority do not collapseas expected, but they even arrive in front of the far right of Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, the great defeat this evening after the desistance pact signed in recent days against her.
The surprise is total, the left is still missing about 90 seats for an absolute majority, so the search for a coalition remains fully current. The first reaction from the Elysée was the vindication by Macron, who has been under fire for weeks from all sides, of his choice to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale: “The turnout – at a record level of 67% – shows that the French had to express themselves”. Immediately after, the president’s entourage called for “prudence”, since the results do not guarantee the possibility of creating “a coherent coalition”. The New Popular Front would have between 180 and 215 seatsfar from the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.
And the Macronian center bloc, at 150-180will not make any alliance that includes Mélenchon and the Mélenchonians. “This is the question – insists the Elysée – whether a coherent coalition is possible to reach 289 deputies”. Then, an official source from the Elysée clarified that Macron “will wait for the new National Assembly to be structured to take the necessary decisions. The president, in his role as guarantor of the institutions, will ensure that the sovereign choice of the French is respected”. The hypotheses that are being improvised in these hours are a government of national union oriented towards the center, with the reformists of the left and the Republicains, who have obtained – without Eric Ciotti who went over to Marine Le Pen – a flattering result, with over 60 seats. While 20 days of debate now seem like a memory – as well as the proclamations of Le Pen and Jordan Bardella who still 48 hours ago were dictating their objectives in foreign policy, on Ukraine, or in economic and social policy, on immigration – the left is already showing all its profound differences. Thundering in these first hours of comments are the winners of La France Insoumise, the radical left that was almost certain to be left out of any agreement, with Mélenchon isolated in opposition. From Manon Aubry to Mathilde Panot to Manuel Bompard, Mélenchon’s colonels proclaim an increase in the minimum wage and a 60-year retirement age, calling for the immediate resignation of Prime Minister Attal. But the figures who will probably have a voice in the coming days are also making their way in the attempt to negotiate a coalition with the center and the moderate right, the only conceivable solution for the government. «
Tonight we are in the lead – said Raphaël Glucksmann, who has dragged the Socialist Party up even further – but faced with a divided National Assembly we must behave like adults. We must talk, we must discuss, we must dialogue”, he insisted, underlining that “the heart of power has been transferred to the National Assembly, a change in political culture is necessary”. While the left-wing people spontaneously poured into the Place de la République, in Paris, to celebrate a victory that was all the more beautiful as it was unexpected, it is a bad blow for Marine Le Pen. After a few spokespersons, a Jordan Bardella for the first time dark in the face. He immediately denounced the “unnatural alliances” between the Macronians and the left, which according to him caused the defeat of his party: “Unfortunately – he said – the alliance of dishonor and the small electoral agreements between Macron and Attal with the far left deprive” the voters of a government of the Rassemblement and “throw France into the arms of Mélenchon”. Then he paid homage, with little conviction and failing to smile, “to the dynamic enjoyed by the RN that brought it to the lead in the first round” and still allows it to obtain a historic number of deputies, between 120 and 150. A small consolation tonight, for a party that was uncertain between triumph and simple victory. The glass ceiling that prevents the far right from governing France is today more solid than ever.
Mèlenchon: “Ready to govern”
«The New Popular Front is ready to govern», «we have obtained a result that they told us was impossible». LFI leader Jean-Luc Mèlenchon said this immediately after the first estimates of the results of the second round of the legislative elections that see the left in a clear lead. “It is a huge relief for a large part of the country,” he continues. “The will of the people must be strictly respected. No agreement would be acceptable. The defeat of the President of the Republic and his coalition is clearly confirmed. The president must bow and accept his defeat.” “The president must ask the New Popular Front to govern,” he added. “The people voted according to their conscience,” he continued.
Le Pen: “The tide is rising, our victory is only postponed”
“The tide continues to rise, our victory is only postponed.” This was said by the leader of the Rassemblement National Marine Le Pen to Tf1 in her first comments after the legislative elections, with the Republican Bloc stopping the right.
Bardella: “France thrown into the arms of the far left”
“The RN achieves the most important result in its entire history. Unfortunately, the dangerous electoral agreements deprive the French of a recovery policy. Jordan Bardella said so. “This evening, their electoral agreements throw France into the arms of the extreme left of Mélenchon.”
With the exit poll results described, several possible majorities can be hypothesized. Let’s look at the options based on the numbers provided:
1. *NFP Absolute Majority:*
– If the NFP (New Popular Front) wins the maximum number of seats (210-215), it could come close to or reach an absolute majority on its own, which in a 577-member assembly would be 289 seats.
2. *NFP Coalition + Ensemble:*
– NFP: 175-215 seats
– Ensemble: 150-180 seats
– This coalition would have between 325 and 395 seats, ensuring a solid majority.
3. *NFP + LR coalition:*
– NFP: 175-215 seats
– LR: 40-50 seats
– This coalition would have between 215 and 265 seats. At their maximum seats, they would be close to an absolute majority but it might not be enough.
4. *Ensemble Coalition + Rn:*
– Ensemble: 150-180 seats
– Rn: 130-160 seats
– This coalition would have between 280 and 340 seats, exceeding the threshold for an absolute majority.
5. *Rn + LR coalition:*
– Rn: 130-160 seats
– LR: 40-50 seats
– This coalition would have between 170 and 210 seats, clearly insufficient for a majority.
In summary, the most likely combinations to form a majority are: A coalition between NFP and Ensemble, which would guarantee a solid majority; a coalition between Ensemble and Rn, which would also exceed the threshold of an absolute majority.