Sting at the beginning of the year for the electricity bills of the most vulnerable users. This was announced by Arera which expects an increase of 18.2% for the segment of so-called type 1 customers, served under “greater protection” in the first quarter of 2025.
A super electricity bill that will affect approximately 3.4 million users, mostly citizens over 75 years of age, social bonus recipients, disabled people, residents in emergency housing modules or on smaller islands and users of life-saving equipment. Despite the increases, however, the annual expenditure of those who benefit from the enhanced protection regime will amount to 523 euros in the period between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025, 2.1% less than the 534 euros recorded between 1 April 2023 and March 31, 2024.
The basis for the increase announced today is the end-of-year gas rally, which coincides with theThe imminent expiration of the agreement between Russia and Ukraine for the transit of methane to Central Europe. A contract that will be a dead letter on December 31st in the absence of a renewal.
In this context, the Energy Authority highlights the “continuation of geopolitical tensions in some strategic areas” and the “seasonal increase in wholesale electricity prices, correlated to natural gas prices in view of the winter season”. On the Ttf square in Amsterdam, futures contracts for the month of January closed with a rise of 4.3% at 47.7 euros per MWh, at the highest levels since last December 3, when they closed at 48.5 euros, and then fell to 40.27 euros on December 16th.
Last December 19, the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky he had ruled out renewing the agreement with Moscow and the visit to Moscow by Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico 3 days later was of little use. Then there is the general winter, with colder temperatures compared to 2023, which have generated a progressive erosion of stocks in the European Union.
The latter fell below the threshold of 75%, well below the average of 82.64% of the last 5 years. On December 28, 2023, for example, they were at 87%. Today they are equal to 74.74% at 857.9 TWh, compared to 868.33 TWh on Christmas Eve and 992 TWh a year ago. Italy (80.5% at 161.05 TWh) and Germany (82.19% at 206.71 TWh) remain above 80%. On Christmas Eve, Italian inventories were at 81.48% at 163.02 TWh and German ones at 82.6% at 207.74 TWh. On an annual basis, the Italian figure differs little from the 83.45% to 164.36 TWh recorded last December 28th. On the contrary, the German one is suffering more than the 90.8% at 231.41 TWh at the end of 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin, with his latest declarations, has done the rest. According to him, it is Ukraine that is “punishing Europe” by refusing the transit of Russian gas. However, experts do not rule out an agreement in extremis, because Russian gas is still worth 19% of European needs.