We could define it as the diplomacy of small steps, that of the technical meetings just concluded in Abu Dhabi between Russians, Ukrainians and Americans. If the concrete result was a new agreement for the exchange of 157 prisoners on each side, the first in five months, there remains “a lot of work to do”, summarized US envoy Steve Witkoff at the end of the talks.
In a swing of optimism and caution for a diplomatic game that remains entirely open. And in which the European chancelleries want more weight, so much so that the idea of establishing a special EU envoy for Ukraine seems to be growing. With the aim of having a representative of the Union’s interests at the negotiating tables in the future.
The talks and the possibility of a ceasefire monitored
«Over the course of two days, the delegations discussed in depth other outstanding issues, in particular methods for implementing a ceasefire and monitoring the cessation of hostilities», explained Witkoff, celebrating «a diplomatic commitment that is producing tangible results»: in addition to the exchange of prisoners, the envoy reported that «the United States and Russia have agreed to start an intermilitary dialogue led by General Alexus Grynkewich, commander of the US European Command».
A communication channel “suspended before the start of the conflict and fundamental for achieving and maintaining peace”, he explained. From the Ukrainian team, Kyrylo Budanov spoke of “really constructive” talks.
But at the same time, Ukrainian President Zelensky described “not easy” meetings in Abu Dhabi.
The knot of territories and the red lines of Moscow
The issue remains that of the territories: while the Ukrainians would like a freezing of the current front line, Moscow continues to ask that Kiev cede the last kilometers of Donbass still in the hands of Zelensky’s forces, and that there be international recognition of Russian sovereignty over those territories. At the end of the talks, the Kremlin also spoke of “positive steps forward”.
This, “despite the fact that the British and EU warmongers are trying to undermine them”, attacked the spokesman Dmitry Peskov who did not miss the opportunity to criticize Kiev’s allies. Indeed, among Moscow’s red lines is the deployment of European troops in Ukraine, an element that Kiev considers key in the architecture of its post-war security, applauding the initiative of the Coalition of the Willing.
The next meetings and the pressure from the United States
Having closed the last Emirati chapter, the negotiations for peace in Ukraine «will continue in the coming weeks. And further progress is expected”, assured Witkoff, giving voice to the US pressure on both sides to find the compromise that brings the war to an end, while the decisive turning point is still missing.
They will probably be held in the USA”, reported Zelensky, but at the moment no details have emerged on the dates and format of the next meetings. In which the Europeans could also actively participate, if the idea of an EU envoy for Ukraine ultimately comes to fruition.
The idea of an EU envoy and the role of European chancelleries
At the moment, the initiative still remains in its embryonic state as does the role, whether that of Sherpa or official representative of the Union’s voice. The President of the Republic of Estonia, Alar Karis, and the Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina made the public request on Wednesday.
Even before that, the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Giorgia Meloni herself had evoked the possibility of launching a similar figure. The European Council would choose it and the topic could be discussed on the sidelines of the “retreat” of the 27 in Aiden Biesen’s castle on 12 February.
Macron, Moscow and diplomatic tensions with Lavrov
In all likelihood, the idea was touched on this morning by Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa in their meeting at the Elysée with Emmanuel Macron, who in the meantime is playing his personal game of resuming dialogue with Putin. In this sense, the news of his diplomatic advisor Emmanuel Bonne arriving in Moscow on Tuesday to meet Yuri Ushakov found neither confirmation nor denial from the Elysée and the Kremlin, but they seem to be going in this direction.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Serghei Lavrov’s comment was sharp: «About two weeks ago, he repeated: “I will call Putin one day”. But it’s not a serious thing, it’s a sort of pathetic diplomacy”, attacked the head of Russian diplomacy. «If you want to talk seriously about something, then call: Putin always answers the phone. And listen to all the proposals.”