A maneuver of 22-23 billion euros, with the puzzle of the resources to be found for the measures in the pipeline, from pensions to the confirmation of the Irpef with three rates, given the debt one step away from 3,000 billion.
And help is arriving today from the State General Accounting Office, with revenues in the January-June period marking a jump of 13 billion, while sources close to the dossier leak that almost 13 billion have already been defined and work is underway to complete the resource base with the missing 10 billion. The numbers are still all to be finalized, the main priorities are emerging: starting from need to tackle spending starting from a thinning out of the jungle of tax breaks, starting with deductions and tax credits.
But with the CGIL ready for “all initiatives to fight” in the face of the chapters that could be the subject of a ‘spending review’, where the goal is two billion: “a return to austerity with the squeeze on healthcare, social security, schools and public employment is unacceptable”, says the confederal secretary of the CGIL Christian Ferrari. The real calculations will be made in September, as soon as the updated data on the self-assessment of taxes are available, and other extended deadlines such as the fifth installment of the scrapping in September and the preventive settlement in October. Better flows than the estimates of the Def could translate into an improvement in the accounts and thus become a useful ‘treasure chest’ for the maneuver. Then by September 20, the multi-year spending plan to be sent to Brussels will have to be finalized, which will then be approved in the autumn package of the European semester, together with the recommendations on the deficit. With the burden of debt, where the MEF is reportedly working to increase the average maturities through the next issues.
The self-assessment figures themselves give hope for a ‘full house’ on the revenue side, after today the Accounting Office reported a 3.4% increase in tax and contribution revenues in the period January-June 2024 equal to 13.113 billion euros, with tax revenues up by 10.973 billion (+4.2%) to 273.502 billion. Revenues contributed by assessment and control activities (+1.707 billion, +31.2% in which the first three installments of the fourth scrapping are also accounted for), but above all the strong Irpef revenue of 112.883 billion (+7.219 billion, +6.8%) thanks to employee income (+8.543 billion, +8.6%), but also VAT, at 80.094 billion (+3.585 billion, +4.7%). Numbers that do not take into account, in fact, the revenue from self-assessment of tax returns given that the ordinary payment deadline for 2024 of the balance and the first advance payment of Irpef, Ires and Irap, has slipped to July 1 because June 30 fell on a Sunday. “Over eighty percent of the increased revenue ascertained (8.5 billion out of 10.2) is due to withholdings from dependent work, which are growing primarily due to the effect of fiscal drag, which is decimating the increases resulting from contract renewals”, says the senator and economic head of the Democratic Party Antonio Misiani, denouncing an “impressive figure”. The budget for the maneuver starts from the approximately 18 billion needed to confirm some of the interventions financed for this year only, the confirmation of Irpef and the ‘unchanged policies’, such as the renewal of public administration contracts. The government has guaranteed the reconfirmation this year of the cut in the tax wedge (which alone costs almost 11 billion). Everything else would be at the moment in the balance, from the tax exemption of corporate welfare to the reduction of contributions for working mothers, from the cut in the Rai license fee to the early retirement. Where the government is aiming for confirmation for the social Ape and for Opzione donna. While Quota 103 could be replaced by Quota 41with a fully contributory recalculation if the trend of very low adherence to the measure after last year’s restrictions were to be confirmed, while among the options there would be an intervention on the supplementary pension front.