The EU raises its expectations for Italy's GDP in 2024 to 0.9%. Gentiloni: “Global political uncertainty is high”


By John

The European Commission is revising its expectations for economic growth in Italy this year upwards: it expects GDP to grow by 0.9% (it was +0.7% in previous forecasts). Expectations for 2025 have been reduced and are now for GDP growth of 1.1% (they were 1.2%). This is what emerges in the spring forecasts of the community executive. Inflation is expected to reach 1.6% in 2024, while it is seen at 1.9% in 2025.

Italy – with growth of 0.9% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025 – this year will grow more than Germany and France. This is what emerges from the European Commission's spring economic forecasts. “After the recession in 2023, economic activity in Germany is expected to stagnate in 2024,” highlights the European Commission. Berlin's growth is expected to be 0.1% in 2024 and then reach 1% in 2025, remaining at the bottom of the list among the major Eurozone countries. France, on the other hand, will grow by 0.7% in 2024, reaching 1.3% in 2025. The southern countries appear to be driving the Eurozone. Economic activity in Spain is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, driven by domestic demand and supported by a strong labor market. For Greece, growth of 2.2% is expected this year and 2.3% next year. Portugal will record a GDP increase of 1.7% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025.

The European Commission expects that the ratio of public debt to Italy's gross domestic product, after 137.3% in 2023, will rise to 138.6% in 2024 and 141.7% in 2025. This is what emerges from the forecasts of spring of the community executive. The ratio of the deficit to Italy's gross domestic product after 7.4% in 2023, according to forecasts, will fall to 4.4% in 2024, to rise again to 4.7% in 2025.

Gentiloni: “Global political uncertainty is high”

“Uncertainty and downside risks to the economic outlook arising from the EU's external environment have increased. Global political uncertainty is also high, in light of an unprecedented share of the world's population going to elections this year” . This was said by the EU Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni when presenting the spring economic forecasts of the community executive.

The requests from the EU Commission on the budget adjustment linked to the excessive deficit procedure with the new Stability Pact should arrive in November, Gentiloni said. “The discussion between the Commission and the various governments is being finalized on the possibility of presenting the decisions” on European excessive deficit procedures “in the June spring package but presenting the recommendations to the various countries in the November package”.