Double in Brussels. In one fell swoop, Coreper – i.e. the Committee of Permanent Representatives to the EU – released the 90 billion loan for Ukraine decided last December by the 27 European leaders and the 20th sanctions package, both hostage to the veto of Viktor Orban (and to a lesser extent the Slovakian Robert Fico). Budapest and Bratislava had placed the blame on Kiev for the failure of the Druzhba oil pipeline – which was actually hit by Russian drones – and therefore put their “energy sovereignty” at risk.
Once the repairs were completed, the green light arrived. The fact that Orban lost the elections almost seems like a coincidence. And of course it isn’t. Now all eyes are on the written procedure started after the Coreper vote, i.e. the confirmation required from the capitals to be able to formalize the decisions at the EU Council. It expires tomorrow at 12 and if no objections are received we proceed — unless there are sensational twists, it’s a formality.
“According to the information available to us – declared the Minister of European Affairs Janos Boka in a post on Facebook – the transport of crude oil through the pipeline resumed today at 11.35am and, according to our estimates, it could arrive in Hungary as early as today, but no later than tomorrow morning”. In other words, seeing is believing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed, for his part, the reactivation of supplies.
«Ukraine is fulfilling its obligations towards the European Union, even on delicate issues such as the functioning of the Druzhba oil pipeline: we expect the European side to also do its part to ensure effective protection of human lives and to promote Ukraine’s full European integration», he wrote on
For Moscow, this is bad news because these are huge, stable and predictable resources, poured directly into the defense sector (both European and Ukrainian, also with the intention of integrating them more and more, especially with regards to anti-drone technologies). Same story for the 20th sanctions package, which contains some very insightful measures to counter the Russian shadow fleet, which is crucial for placing oil around the world.
“The unblocking is the right signal in the current circumstances: Russia must end the war and the incentives to do so will emerge only when both the support for Ukraine and the pressure on Russia are sufficient,” Zelensky comments. Now it remains to be seen whether structural turning points will arrive from Budapest. The other special observation is the enlargement process. Orban had blocked everything, with his firm opposition to the opening of the negotiating chapters, a fundamental step to start the work, which was already long and difficult in itself. The Commission and the Member States continued with the technical work anyway, precisely so as not to waste time.
Now the blue-starred executive has given the favorable opinion to open all six negotiating chapters, asking the Council to now do its part. How will Peter Magyar’s Hungary behave? This is a crucial point. Also because, until now, many other European countries, large and small, were hiding behind Orban’s veto, very upset by the prospect of Ukraine joining the EU. It was convenient to place all the blame on Hungary.