From elections in Kiev within 100 days to security guarantees ranging from a Russia-Kiev-EU non-aggression pact to a sort of Article 5 created to defend Ukraine as if it were a territory of the Alliance, passing through Polish jets ready to take off in case of violations.
Here are the main steps of the 28 points of the US plan:
“All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered resolved”
This appears to be, in black and white, the ultimate goal of the possible agreement. Thus it is expected that Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed, but on the territories the plan is clear: the two regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in Donbass and Crimea annexed in 2014, will be “recognized as Russian”, and Moscow will receive other Ukrainian territories which are still under Kiev’s control today.
SAFETY
A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe, according to which it is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and that NATO will not expand further. The US is calling for a dialogue between Russia and NATO, mediated by Washington, to be restored. On the other hand, the plan states that Kiev will receive reliable security guarantees and, despite seeing its Armed Forces halved to 600,000 personnel, will enjoy a sort of shield with the deployment of European fighters stationed in neighboring Poland. However, a security guarantee modeled on NATO’s Article 5 is also envisaged, which would commit US and European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the “transatlantic community”.
KIEV, NATO AND THE EU
Among the 28 points also Kiev’s commitment to enshrine in its Constitution that it will not join NATO while the Alliance agrees to include in its statutes never to admit Ukraine. Kiev, however, will be able to continue its path towards EU membership and, in the meantime, will receive preferential access to the 27-member market. The plan then sets the deadline for Ukraine to hold elections at 100 days.
RECONSTRUCTION
The US plan includes a powerful comprehensive package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, with some suggestions, such as the creation of a Development Fund to invest in fast-growing sectors. The US offers to cooperate with Kiev to jointly reconstruct, develop, modernize and operate Ukrainian gas infrastructure. $100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested and Washington will receive 50% of the profits from this initiative. Europe will add $100 billion, and the remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate deal between the United States and Russia. Joint efforts will also be made for the rehabilitation of war-affected areas and the World Bank – it is proposed – will develop a financing package to accelerate them.
THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
The US plan sees Russia ultimately reintegrated into the global economy, through the lifting of sanctions to be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis. Russia will then be invited to rejoin the G8.
NUCLEAR
The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear arms control treaties, including the START I Treaty. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state. The Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine.