Three years of growth at zero point. The Italian miracle of the post-Covid era now seems behind, thanks to the dear-energy, the global uncertainty linked to the two wars and now also the spectrum of an international commercial war unleashed by the duties of the United States.
The new estimates come fromParliamentary Budget Officewhich – as already the great international organizations – has corrected the shot and tracked down the trend of Italian GDP in the three -year period: In 2024 the growth will be 0.7%, this year it will accelerate “modest” to 0.8% and the next one will rise to 0.9%hypothesizing, however, that the ongoing conflicts and commercial wars are not accepted, that the normalization of monetary policy continues and that the PNRR’s spending profile is not too modified. The numbers are rather far from the forecasts contained in the structural budget plan presented by the government in autumn and which indicated rhythms around 1% for all three years: +1% in 2024, +1.2% in 2025 and +1 , 1% in 2026.
The figures had then been validated by the Authority of Public Ctoons but in a few months the picture has changed a lot. “2025 begins with some innovations globally, in particular on climate change and geo -economic balances, while adverse effects are expected from the new protectionist policies of the United States of America, which could be considerable”, points out the UPB. The news and the almost unpredictable variables of the Trump presidency can only have “a strong specific weight on an economy very open to exchanges such as the Italian one”, says Authority, which underlines how uncertainty weighs also on the currency markets e of raw materials. Not surprisingly, the volatility of energy prices, in particular gas, is one of the first risk factors under observation.
A considerable consideration also concerns the climate. “The tendency to global warming continues and has significant implications for the economy”, underline the economists led by Lilia Cavallari. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events increase, they pushed prices, mainly food and energy, e They damage the production fabric. They substantially place within the interval of the forecasts formulated by other analysts. .
According to the OECD, on the other hand, 2024 closed to a more modest +0.5%, followed by +0.9% this year and +1.2% the next. Finally, Bankitalia sets the three -year bar riders to +0.5%, +0.8%and +1.1%. The substantial weakness of the Italian economy is also testified by the SME indices developed by S&P Global. At the beginning of 2025, the Italian manufacturing sector remained in contraction “with continuous signs of weakness of the demand”, so much so that the economists of the Hamburg Commercial Bank AG of “bleak” operating conditions of companies speak. Instead, the expansion of the tertiary sector, so far driving sector of growth, with the level of optimism of companies collapsed at the minimum in 15 months.