The intercity buses that have returned to speed in Islamabad after days of total blockade risk taking away hopes of an agreement between Iran and the USA. In fact, if the Pakistani capital has maintained the restrictions – including the red zone at the Hotel Serena – the diplomatic effort is in the balance: at the end of a day shrouded in uncertainty, Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Islamabad – initially given only as temporarily suspended – has been “postponed indefinitely”, writes Axios citing US sources.
At the same time, the semi-official Iranian agency Tasnim made it known, citing regime sources, that Iran decided not to participate in the talks on Wednesday, judging them “a waste of time” as “in the messages exchanged in recent days, the US has not backed down on its excessive demands” and “there has been no significant progress”.
Trump’s decision: extend the truce
To give rise to hope, a Truth message from Donald Trump who, contrary to what was previously stated, has decided to extend the truce, which expires on Wednesday, until the moment in which Iran’s proposal is presented and “the discussions are concluded, one way or the other”. Earlier in the day, rumors bouncing around the American media had given new vigor to the diplomatic path to ending the war, with Axios reporting Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s authorization to fly his negotiating team to Islamabad. According to the AP, Pakistani mediators had received confirmation that the main negotiators, Vice President Vance and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Ghalibaf, had confirmed their presence at the talks. On Tuesday evening in Italy, Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar was still waiting for official confirmation of the Iranian delegation’s arrival at the table. At the same time, the US vice president was still reported as still in Washington, ready to participate in “further political meetings at the White House”. And the flight that was supposed to take the envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan from Miami also headed towards the American capital, perhaps for meetings with Donald Trump.
Everything revolves around the Strait of Hormuz
According to what was reconstructed by the US media, what is holding the talks in check is the intransigence of the Pasdaran, who are putting pressure on Iranian mediators not to participate in the negotiations until the Americans give in on a point considered crucial by Tehran: the end of the US blockade of Iranian ports. A point on which the tycoon does not intend to make concessions: “We have total control of the Strait of Hormuz” and “we are in a position of strength in the negotiations”, Trump claimed, while the Iranian media maintain that an oil tanker from the Islamic Republic managed to force the US cordon, crossing Hormuz to reach the island of Kharg. Adding a further point of conflict, Trump asked the ayatollah regime to free eight Iranian women who are about to be executed by hanging, as a sign of goodwill: “It would be an excellent start to the negotiations”, said the tycoon, while Tehran denied that the women risk capital punishment. Faced with this picture, Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators worked feverishly to convince the Iranians to show flexibility and participate in the meeting in Islamabad, “defined as crucial” by Pakistani minister Tarar in view of the official deadline of the ceasefire, initially set for Tuesday night, then extended by 24 hours. And finally extended by the tycoon for a time that according to observers could be indeterminate: «Considering that the government of Iran appears seriously fragmented, a circumstance that is not unexpected, and accepting the request of Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, we have been asked to suspend our attack against Iran until its leaders and representatives are able to formulate a unified proposal», Trump stated, without setting any date and confirming in any case the order to the “armed forces to maintain the blockade and, in all other respects, to remain ready and operational”.