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Donald Trump has never been so close to resuming attacks on Iran as early as next week. Having returned to Washington from a visit to China, the American president locked himself in the White House with his closest advisors to decide the next steps and could make a final decision as early as the next 24 hours, while Israel would also have started preparations for a new escalation.
The situation of the conflict that began at the end of February appears to be at a standstill, after the failure of a new agreement, and for days there have been signs that the tycoon is losing patience. Especially since his meeting with Xi Jinping did not bring the results he hoped for. Even if Trump clearly stated that he did not need and did not ask for favors from Beijing, it is clear that pressure from China in this phase of the conflict, in particular regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, would have been precious, also for Washington. Instead, Tehran appears to be relaunching and announcing that it has developed a plan to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz along a designated route. And, according to Iranian state TV, some European countries have started talks with the Pasdaran navy to guarantee the transit of their ships after the passage of those of China, Japan and Pakistan. News that has not yet been confirmed by any capital of the Old Continent.
And so the specter of new raids approaches. The United States and Israel are engaged in “intense preparations”, the largest since the ceasefire came into force, for a possible resumption of attacks on Iran as early as next week, Middle Eastern officials told the New York Times. The Pentagon could even change the name of the military operation, from “Epic fury” to “Sledgehammer” (“sledgehammer”), so as to allow the commander-in-chief to be able to proceed for another 60 days without the authorization of Congress, as foreseen by the War Powers Resolution of 1973. If the tycoon were to decide to resume the raids, options include more aggressive bombings against Iranian military and infrastructure targets. Another possibility, according to American officials, would be to deploy special forces on the ground to strike deep-buried Iranian nuclear material after the American strikes in June. However, such an operation would also require thousands more support troops and would pose a very high risk to soldiers. An eventuality that Trump wants to avoid, given the general discontent that this war is already causing among Americans. There is also the hypothesis of an invasion of the strategic island of Kharg, but even in that case many more ground troops would be needed.
At a briefing last week, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, said that more than 50,000 troops, two aircraft carriers, twelve Navy destroyers and dozens of warplanes “stand ready to resume full-scale combat operations against Iran.” And about 5,000 Marines and 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, an elite unit of the US Army, are in the region awaiting instructions. The point is that, beyond public declarations, Pentagon leaders fear that victory against Tehran could prove to be a difficult undertaking. The U.S. military has done a good job of hitting its intended targets, such as Iranian ballistic missile launch sites, Revolutionary Guard Corps ammunition depots, and other military infrastructure. Nonetheless, Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities. And it restored operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.