The demographic projections indicate that, within the next 10 years, the population of working age in Italy will fall by 2,908,000 units (-7.8%). At the beginning of 2025 this demographic band counted 37.3 million people and the CGIA provides that the audience in 2035 will drop to 34.4 million due to the progressive aging of the population. The phenomenon will affect all areas of the country with companies intended to undergo very worrying repercussions also for the difficulties in finding young workers. Not even the use of foreign labor, for the CGIA, will be able to completely resolve the situation. As a result, there may be a progressive slowdown of GDP and a significant increase in social security, health and welfare expenses, with implications also on public accounts.
The South could encounter less problems than the centronord because it has significantly high unemployment rates and inactivitywhich could allow you to at least partially fill the employment gaps envisaged especially in the agri-food and tourist-receptive sectors. Many companies, in particular small ones, will be forced to reduce the staff due to the impossibility of proceeding with hiring, while medium and large companies the problem could be less relevant: thanks to the possibility of offering wages higher than the average, flexible times, benefits and significant packages of corporate welfare, young people will tend to prefer the most structured realities. The forecast is the risk of a decrease in the business volume of the real estate market, transport, fashion and the accommodation sector while the banking sector could be among the few to benefit from some positive effects. According to the Cgia, the most important contractions of the population of working age will concern the South.
Of the 3 million less people who take care of the registry band between 15 and 64 years of age, half will affect the South regions, especially Sardinia which will suffer a drop of 15.1% (-147,697 people). Then Basilicata (-14.8%, -49,685), Puglia (-12.7%, -312,807), Calabria (-12.1%, -139,450) and Molise (-11.9%, -21,323). The less interested regions will be: Trentino AA (-3.1%, -21.256) Lombardy (-2.9%, -189,708) and, finally, Emilia R. (-2.8%, -79.007). At the provincial level, however, the greatest decline will occur in Nuoro (-17.9%). Then South Sardinia (-17.7%), Caltanissetta (-17.6%), Enna (-17.5%), and power (-17.3%). In absolute value, the province that will undergo the most important loss is Naples (-236,677 people). Among the least interested provinces: Bologna with -1.4%, Prato (-1.1%) and, Parma (-0.6%).