«I believe that the conflict will remain quite limited and with relatively limited implications for international trade and oil prices, if the duration is short, especially in its most intense phase».
Economist Carlo Cottarelli claims this in an interview with La Stampa, recalling that the 12-day war between Israel, the United States and Iran last June “did not have major consequences”. In his opinion, this time too, “if it were possible to have a transition towards a democratic regime in a reasonable time, the impact would be positive in terms of Iran’s complete re-entry into the globalized economy, therefore with an increase in its production of hydrocarbons”. Speaking about the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of global oil transits, Cottarelli explained that «oil is no longer such a strategic weapon as it was in the 70s and 80s. It is important, of course, but the shocks that occurred in the past reflected a different role for oil at an international level compared to the current one.” Iran, he concludes, “produces 5% of global oil, it is not irrelevant. But excluding the possibility that the conflict could spread to other subjects, I am inclined to think that this war will end after an acute phase of bombings.”