Donald Trump has achieved the greatest diplomatic achievement of his second term and perhaps of his history in the White House. The success of his undertaking in the Middle East represents for him the definitive proof to accredit himself as a mediator and peacemaker and pave the way for him towards the Nobel Peace Prize which he so much aspires to but which he is unlikely to obtain, at least this year. He would be the fifth American president to receive it – in addition to environmentalist Vice President Al Gore and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger – and certainly the most controversial.
But a lot could go wrong in the coming days and years in the Middle East, as often happens, and the deal announced Wednesday night could prove to be yet another temporary truce in a war that began with Israel’s founding in 1948 and never ended. Not to mention that, as Thomas Friedman pointed out in an analysis in the New York Times, keeping the pieces of peace together in the years to come will be like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube while the pieces themselves fall apart.
And so one must ask whether the Trump administration will have the attention, energy and focus needed every day to keep such a fragile solution on track. For the moment, the tycoon and his team of negotiators – the strange couple formed by his son-in-law Jared Kushner, former architect of the Abraham Accords with billion-dollar deals in the Gulf, and the official envoy Steve Witkoff – are enjoying their triumph, while everyone in the world is wondering how The Donald managed to go from the plan, bordering on caricature, of the Gaza Riviera, to a well-structured proposal in 20 points that convinced both Israel and Hamas. The involvement of the Arabs was fundamental: not only Egypt and Saudi Arabia but above all Qatar and Turkey which hold the reins of the Palestinian militant group.
Playing the Tony Blair card was also a masterstroke by the tycoon, perhaps suggested to him by Kushner-Witkoff. But it was also crucial that Iran and its network – Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Shia militias in Iraq – suffered a devastating blow from Israel, with the help of the United States, in what was called the 12-day war. So Iran’s ability to meddle and destroy peace talks has been severely compromised. The change in approach towards Bibi was then essential. From the blank check to Israel to the irritation after the attack against Hamas leaders in Qatar.
That was the turning point. When Trump hosted Netanyahu at the White House on September 29 to present his peace plan, he forced him to call the Qatari prime minister from the Oval Office to apologize. It seems that the president even held the receiver in his hand throughout the phone call and that an official from Doha supervised that the Israeli prime minister did not change the agreed script. Not only that, the occupant of the White House exploited the Arabs’ unity against the Israeli attack to convince them all to accept the plan. Last, but not least, Trump has become more personally involved in these negotiations, bringing his unorthodox style and relying on a few trusted advisors, his instincts and an unshakable faith in the power of personal relationships.