Reservations, doubts, the multiplication of stakes on alliances. And the silent temptation of a sensational last-ditch effort. Ursula von der Leyen’s path towards an encore is facing the most difficult days. The smile of the president of the Commission designate, in the meetings organized at the European Parliament with the various groups, remains intact. Her staff continues to spread tranquility. But in the pro-European parties called to decide at the Strasbourg Plenary, certainties are not so solid. “Not voting for her would throw the EU into instability and would be a gift to Orban”, warn the EPP. But, among the People’s Party themselves, divergences remain.
On the role of the Greens, for example, who are pushing to enter the majority permanently, encountering resistance in the very party that nominated von der Leyen. The president of the EU executive dedicated Wednesday’s meetings to the Liberals and, indeed, to the Greens. Both have stressed that an alliance with the Conservatives and Reformists must be absolutely excluded. Von der Leyen has assured both that there will be no “structural cooperation” with ECR. This is the formula with which the Spiztenkandidat is trying to play on several tables: taking the votes of a part of the Conservatives but trying to keep the pro-EU platform that includes Renew and Socialists compact.
And, at the same time, also cashing in the yes of the 53 elected Greens. The game is tough, and in any case it faces a crossroads: the programmatic speech that von der Leyen will have to give in Strasbourg. It is no coincidence that, after three hours of meeting, the Greens underlined that there are “steps forward” but not yet the conclusion of the negotiations. “We will decide on Thursday”, underlined the co-president Bas Eickhout.
The order of the meetings chosen by von der Leyen was significant. First the Populars, then the Socialists. Then Renew and the Greens. Only next week – Monday and Tuesday respectively – will the designated president meet The Left and Ecr. The meeting with the Left, at least officially, does not herald any change of direction for the group dominated by France Insoumise: The Left will not vote for Ursula and will propose its own candidate as an alternative to Roberta Metsola to lead the Eurochamber. However, the pro-EU parties have not raised any cordon sanitaire against them.
“The biggest problem is the far right,” Popolari sources explain. The cordon will therefore exclude the Patriots and the new group led by AfD. With the Conservatives, the matter is different. The EPP remains convinced that with a part of them – Fratelli d’Italia, the Belgians of N-Va, the Ods of Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala – it is possible to dialogue on various issues. “Renew’s ultimatum on Ecr is unacceptable,” thundered former Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, head of one of the delegations – together with the Republicains – most skeptical about von der Leyen’s encore. And yet, Socialists and Liberals insist on reducing as much as possible the weight – and any compensations – that Giorgia Meloni may have. A certain irritation is filtering through in the EPP over the attitude of S&D. “We need greater clarity,” the group’s leaders have been repeating in these hours.
With one reference, in particular: Elly Schlein’s Democratic Party. The Democratic delegation, so far, has been among the most cautious about positioning in the Plenary. Some of the Democratic Party MEPs would easily do without a von der Leyen encore. A possible embrace with Meloni would make her fatally indigestible. The negotiation is not only played out in the confrontation between the outgoing president and the groups but also in what is said afterwards. The Greens, for example, speak of a four-way alliance, as the only way for a “stable, pro-EU and pro-Ukraine majority” and have said they have had “guarantees” on the Green Deal. Words that Manfred Weber certainly won’t like. The line Ursula is walking on therefore remains thin. In the EPP they assure that there is no “plan B”. Many, in the European Parliament, are wondering whether an extraordinary European Council in the middle of summer is really possible to take cover in the event of a resounding rejection.