Beijing raises the barrier against the duties of 10% decided by Donald Trump, but leave the door open to direct interviews between the president XI Jinping And the American one to avoid a clash with unpredictable effects. With a coordinated action, the ministries of commerce and foreign have condemned the American “arbitrary” move on the belief that “there are no winners” in a commercial war, anticipating the appeal – even if symbolic – to the World Trade Organization ( WTO) and the adoption of “countermeasures” not better specified in the US USA. The latest intentions of The Donadl emerged.
In the last few days, Chinese state media have remarked to see 10% a figure still “manageable”, compared to 25% of rates decided on imports from Canada – a longtime US ally – and Mexico – the main destination for US exports – which, not surprisingly, replied vehemently. Even if widely foreseen, The measures of the American president are a significant challenge for XI leadership between the stall of internal demand and the risk of deflation who made the Mandarin economy dependent on exports for growth, stopped at just 5% in 2024. The commercial surplus reached the record of almost 1,000 billion dollars last year, of which over a third generated by the United States . It is difficult to estimate the impact of the new duties on the dragon because it is applicable to all imported assets and not only to some sectors as for the Trump I. Ubs has hypothesized a shot for the GDP of 0.3-0.4%. The scenarios of Bloomberg Economics are more Foschi: 40% cut of Beijing exports to the USA and 0.9% less Chinese GDP.
Mandarins exports to key sectors, including the car, have risen much more quickly in volumes than in value, signaling the filing of the margins by producers to the desperate search for market shares abroad. For this reason, analysts believe that Beijing wants to reach an agreement with Trump avoiding the nightmare, in the case of escalation, of the announcement to commercial triangulations, as in the case of the ban on Made in China technology on the vehicles connected in the United States decided by the Joe Biden administration. Beijing is more prepared from eight years ago to the clash with Washington: he has strengthened the ties with his allies, he pushed for self -sufficiency in technological sectors and has funds to support a vulnerable economy, but the risks remain high. In the end, the hardest tones of the Chinese reaction were reserved for the Fenanyl dossier, cited by the American president to motivate the duties against Beijing, Ottawa and Mexico City, responsible for him not to stop the flow of mortal synthetic opium in the states United. “Fenanyl is an America problem – he thundered the foreign ministry -. We carried on a large anti -drug cooperation with Washington and has achieved remarkable results ».