The weakness of the Italian industryfound now in months and months of negative statisticsrisks transforming into one structural crisiswith duties And uncertainty to master it on the international economic scenario. The alarm comes from Confindustria Study Center worried about the deterioration of the climate of trust and for thedisappointing trend of investmentsboth linked precisely to the fears on the future of global trade and to the continuous swaying of theAmerican administration.
TO Februaryunderlines the CSCthe production fell of the 0.9%after the rebound equal to +2,5% recorded a January. The variation acquired in first quarter It is positive of the 0.4% After five trimesters down. But theRTT (Real Time Turnover) index indicates a Deep drop in turnover in February, the SME Report again a flexion to March (46.6 from 47.4) and the trust – the industrialists note – worsens, Descending below the average of 2024. “Theuncertainty of economic policywhich brakes the Company investment choices», Underlines the Study Center. Not surprisingly, i judgments on the conditions for investing in the first quarter 2025 they worsen compared to the end 2024and in services that in constructionswhile they remain almost unchanged in theindustry.
The result will be one Modest growth of Italian GDP In the first three months of 2025period in which «theonly positive side effect»It seems to be the Descent of the energy priceuntil now plug in the side of production. For the rest theEstimated impact of duties it can only be negative: the CSC simulations indicate a possible effect equal to -0.3% for the growth of 2025-2026. Therefore to be avoided totally one EU tariff retaliation on purchases from the USAwhich would further impact on prices and on trust of families and businesses. “CrucialRather conclude New EU commercial agreements with other important ones cheap partners as India And Mercosur which can become new outlets for Italian goods.
In the latest available statisticsthe data on theexport moreover they still show a certain dynamism. TO February theIstat detected a 3.5% increase on an annual basis and of the 0.8% compared to January. The Sales in the United States they collapsed on a tendential basis of almost the 10%but it was not theAnnouncement effect of the duties to weigh early. Indeed, usually in view of new ones Commercial ratescompanies hurry to accumulate assets in the countries that will raise a wall. The declineexplains theIceis largely attributable to a statistical comparisonthat is to the Delivery in February 2024 of a shipwhich alone already constitutes a large slice of the exports.
However, this does not mean that the Made in Italy may feel sheltered. THE’Italian export He lives a moment “delicate for the unpredictable dynamics of negotiation on duties», Explains theIce underlining that the US market “He lives anegative impasse from uncertainty that you can probably express on numbers In the months following February».