Istat in the economic perspectives for the two-year period 2025-2026 estimates the growth of GDP in Italy for this year at +0.6% and in the next to +0.8%, after having increased by 0.7% in the previous two years. A forecast in line with that proposed by the government in April in the public finance document. The uncertainty linked to the commercial war unleashed by the duties imposed – and in some cases frozen – by the United States, with fears for the repercussions on trade, inflation, productivity and wages. Investments grow, as well as employment, while the dynamics of inflation should still cool down.
The weight of the duties
The increase in GDP, analyzes Istat, would be supported “entirely by the internal application net of stocks (+0.8 and +0.9 percentage points respectively)”, while the foreign one would provide “a negative contribution in both years: respectively -0.2 and -0.1%. The foreign demand “discounts the hypothesis of an attention in the second part of 2025 of the climate of uncertainty relating to the address of US commercial policy”. However, the statistics institute hypothesizes “a negative impact of duties on world trade and on international growth prospects”.
Private consumption continues to grow “at moderate but stable rhythms” (+0.7% in both years) on the one hand favored by the continuation of the growth of wages and employment, on the other braked by an increase in the propensity for savings.
Investment growth, in 2025 (+1.2%), marks a decisive acceleration from+0.5%in 2024, would be favored by the “good performance recorded in the first quarter and then mark a further light acceleration in 2026 (+1.7%) in conjunction with the final phase of the PNRR”.
The occupation, Istat estimates, “would mark an increase higher than that of GDP ( +1.1% in 2025 and +1.2% in 2026)”, but in “deceleration compared to previous years” to which “a further drop in the unemployment rate (6.0% this year and 5.8% in 2026) would be accompanied”.
After the rise in prices between the end of 2024 and the first months of 2025, during the year we expect “a more moderate dynamic of inflation”, favored by the descent of the lists of energy goods and by the indexless prospects of demand. The increase in the defense of the expenditure of families residing in 2025 would be in line with these trends (+1.8%), with a new slight reduction in 2026 (+1.6%).
The international context has its weight
In 2024 global economic growth (+3.3%) was supported by a dynamism higher than expected in China and by a still robust performance in the United States. On the forecast horizon, however, there is a “deceleration for the world economy, which would follow a substantial stabilization in the following year ( +2.9% in 2025 and +3.0% in 2026)”. This dynamic, Istat notes, “is penalized by the uncertainty fueled by the continuous changes in US commercial policy and strong geopolitical tensions”.
In Italy in the first quarter of 2025, after the weak dynamic of the second half of last year, the GDP grew by 0.3% on an economic basis (+0.7% on a tendential basis), synthesis of “a positive contribution both of the internal demand to the net of stocks” (+0.4%) and of the net foreign demand (+0.1%), while the stocks provided a “negative contribution” (for -0.3%). On the offer side, in the first quarter of 2025 there were positive conjunctural variations of the added value in industry (+1.2%) and in agriculture while the services highlighted a slight decrease (-0.1%).
In industry the dynamics of buildings (+1.4%) was slightly more lively than the rest of the sector (+1.1%). Among the services, the strong expansion of artistic and entertainment activities emerges (+2.3%); In contraction, however, financial and insurance (-1.4%) and real estate (-0.9%).