Maneuver 2026, the unknown of the so-called “gold tax” remains: evaluations on hedging

John

By John

The new passage of the maneuver process is expected on Tuesday: with the screening of the amendments, only the so-called ‘reported’ ones will remain, a total of 414, of which 238 are from the majority. And they will be, the conviction in all the forces of the majority, all those deposited by the economic impact: from short-term rentals, to support for the police, from social security to the scrapping of files, from funds for small businesses to the tax on small parcels and the reform of company dividends. There will also be a request for FDI for the reopening of the building amnesty in 2003.

But the main unknown, for the expected revenue of almost two billion, remains the so-called gold tax, or rather the “procedure for the fiscal revaluation of investment gold” (“This – we read, for example, in the League’s proposal – means “gold in the form of ingots or plaques of weight accepted by the gold market, but in any case greater than 1 gram, of purity equal to or greater than 995 thousandths, represented or not by securities; coins of gold with a purity equal to or greater than 900 thousandths, minted after 1800, which are or have been legal tender in the country of origin, normally sold at a price that does not exceed 80 percent of the value on the free market of the gold contained therein”).
The via Bellerio party calculates revenue between 1.67 and 2.08 billion, FI of 1.8 billion. In practice, taxpayers who own investment gold on 1 January 2026 will be able, “in the absence of documentation certifying the relative cost or purchase value”, to request its tax revaluation by 30 June 2026. The proposal provides for the application of a preferential rate of 12.5%, instead of 26% to facilitate the emergence and guarantee a significant increase in revenue. The measure is supported by all the coalition parties and would have the approval of the Mef. However, there is an ongoing evaluation by the Accounting Office on its feasibility and the coverage that could come from the law. Official figures are not provided, there are those who speak of 500 million and those who speak of higher numbers, those who do not hide fears related to anti-money laundering, those who underline that there is no risk. But all the parties that support the executive are pushing in this direction. «There has been the revaluation of land, of houses, why can’t it be done with gold?», the conviction of a ‘big’ of the centre-right.
But there is also another topic on the table, even if it does not in any way concern the question of the coverage of the maneuver and any changes that will make it to the final text. There is an amendment by the Brothers of Italy that some of the allies simply define as “patriotic”, signed by senators Malan, Speranzon, Sallemi, Zedda, Scurria, which establishes that “the gold reserves managed and held by the Bank of Italy belong to the State, in the name of the Italian People”. Therefore not to Bank of Italy.

The party led by Giorgia Meloni had already presented ad hoc motions in the past. In April 2019 a motion was presented to the Senate: illustrated by the current undersecretary to the Prime Minister Giovanbattista Fazzolari, Pd with M5s and Lega voted against, FI abstained. The request addressed to the government was to ask for a “timely” regulatory act that would “explicitly” reiterate that the gold reserves are the property of the Italian State and not of the Bank of Italy. «The ownership of the national gold reserves lies with the Bank of Italy, a public body which carries out the functions of the central bank of the Italian Republic. The use of the gold reserve is one of the institutional purposes of the Bank, to protect the value of the currency”, said the then Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte.
For Fdi, however, gold represents national wealth and must remain under the control of the State for national autonomy and independence. On 27 January 2014 in the Chamber it was the then group leader of the Fratelli d’Italia Giorgia Meloni who signed, together with the deputies Massimo Corsaro and Fabio Rampelli, an agenda to «protect the gold reserves preserved by the Bank of Italy but which are owned by the Italian State». «The State – we read in the text – must reiterate that the gold reserves are the property of the Italian State and not of the Bank of Italy, and must take initiatives to ensure that the gold reserves abroad are brought back into the national territory within 12 months of the conversion of the decree law». A few days ago it was the former Prime Minister Romano Prodi who relaunched the issue of returning part of the gold reserves currently held in the United States to his homeland. In fact, the ingots are distributed partly in the Via Nazionale vault, partly in Fort Knox in the United States, and in smaller portions between Switzerland and Great Britain. «The gold reserves – we read on the Bank of Italy website – are an integral part of the country’s official reserves and have the function of strengthening confidence in the stability of the Italian financial system and in the single currency. The Bank of Italy is the fourth largest holder of gold reserves in the world, after the US Federal Reserve, the German Bundesbank and the International Monetary Fund. The total quantity of gold owned by the Institute is equal to 2,452 tonnes, consisting mainly of ingots (95,493) and a smaller part of coins”. «A portion (100 tons) of the reserves transferred to the ECB is also kept in the vaults of the Bank of Italy». In the budget law, Fdi withdrew the amendment which aimed to introduce the obligation of seven days’ notice for workers in the transport sector. While he insists (“The intention is to go all the way”, says a leading exponent of the via della Scrofa party) on the measure to reopen the terms of the 2003 building amnesty, limited to those who were excluded from it.

The League, on the other hand, is pushing for the expansion of the audience for the scrapping of tax bills and for the freezing of the increase in the retirement age steps until 2028. While Forza Italia aims to repeal the increase to 26% in the flat rate tax rate for short-term rentals. But all proposed changes will have to be examined by the Mef which has always underlined the need to keep the structure of the maneuver unchanged. In short, the assumption is that every modification must contain coverage. Hedging that would come precisely from the tax revaluation of gold to be invested. In fact, it appears difficult to increase the levy requested from credit institutions (the proposal is from the League which wants to increase the IRAP to banks and insurance companies by 4 points, instead of 2 as provided for in article 21 of the budget) because the government’s input is not to modify the agreement found in the majority.
In the League’s accompanying report to the proposal, in addition to the need to involve intermediaries and professional operators registered in the register of professional gold operators, it is underlined that «similar measures have already been introduced with reference to crypto-assets, shareholdings (listed or unlisted) and land (agricultural or building), «therefore – it is emphasized – it would be a discipline already tested and part of the tax system». Even in the absence of official data, according to some estimates, private gold in Italy could amount to around 4,500/5,000 tonnes, with an indicative value of 499/550 billion euros, considering the market price of gold currently around 111,000 euros per kg.

What will be needed – again according to the League’s proposal – is the certification of a company registered in the register of professional gold operators at the agents and brokers body. The substitute tax – we read in the proposal – must be paid by 30 September 2026, with the taxpayer having the right to pay the total amounts due in installments up to a maximum of three equal annual installments. «Interest is applied to the installments subsequent to the first at the rate of 3 percent per year, to be paid at the same time as each instalment. The revaluation is finalized on the date of making the single payment or the first instalment. The application methods of the revaluation procedure provided for in the previous paragraphs are regulated by a provision of the director of the Revenue Agency to be issued within thirty days from the date of entry into force of this provision”. It is considered appropriate – we further read – “to propose the introduction of an extraordinary and temporary regulation aimed at allowing the realignment of the tax cost of investment gold held by private entities, in the sole hypothesis of the absence of historical documentation certifying the original purchase value”.