ECB under the lens of the markets next week. To be circled in red is Thursday’s meeting, the outcome of which is quite obvious considering that everyone seems aligned on a 25 basis point cut. And an intervention on the cost of money of the same size “is almost fully priced in December too, even if it is the 2025 cuts that capture the most attention”, highlight MPS analysts in Market Movers. To be monitored on Friday, after the markets close, the rating agencies S&P and Fitch will give their opinions on Italy and from which no changes to rating levels are expected. Also at the end of the week (Thursday and Friday) the European Council. The macro data calendar is quite light.
Markets in the United States and Japan are closed on Monday for holidays. Tuesday’s focus is on August industrial production in the Eurozone, which is expected to post growth after a decline in July. The Zew is on the agenda on the same day and should highlight a recovery of 6-month expectations on the German economy. Then on the calendar, inflation in the United Kingdom (Wednesday) and Japan (Friday), important for the next decisions of the central banks. While in China, awaiting a stimulus plan, Friday’s third quarter GDP data, retail sales and industrial production need to be monitored to get a more complete picture of the health of the economy.
In the United States, among the main data (all Thursdays), retail sales, expected to accelerate slightly in September, subsidies which, however, could still be affected by the hurricane effect and industrial production seen decreasing in September. On the central banks front, in addition to Lagarde’s intervention on the occasion of the board meeting on 17 October, there will be speeches by bankers from both the Fed and the ECB (Villeroy on Monday and Nagel on Tuesday), while in Turkey the Central Bank is expected to leave the rates stuck at 50%. Finally, the quarterly reporting season continues in the United States, with the banking sector (Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs on 15 October, Morgan Stanley on 16 October) to which are added big names of the caliber of Johnson & Johnson (on 15 October), Netflix and Taiwan Semiconductor (both on October 17), Procter & Gamble (on October 18). In Europe the ASML accounts are expected on 16 October.