Tehran is seriously considering the possibility of closing the Hormuz Strait. The Iranian media reports, citing the declarations of Esmail Kosari, member of the parliamentary commission for national security. A hypothesis that, if concretized, could have a devastating impact on global geopolitical and economic balances, triggering a spiral of potentially uncontrollable consequences.
JP Morgan: oil could splash up to $ 130
According to JP Morgan, a possible military escalation between Israel and Iran, combined with the closure of the Hormuz Strait, could make the price of oil hold up to 120-130 dollars per barrel. It is the worst scenario among those hypothesized by the financial institution, which in its more optimistic projections for 2026 instead provides for an average price of about 60 dollars per barrel, in the absence of serious tensions.
Despite the risk of significant interruptions in the energy supply, JP Morgan still considers a diplomatic seal margin plausible. However, the markets already seem to react with nervousness: yesterday the oil touched new peaks, with the WTI closed at 73.9 dollars (+8.6%) and the Brent attested around 75 dollars (+8%).
The Strait of Hormuz: vital hub for world energy
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow arm of the sea between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of the Oman, would have unprecedented global economic consequences. Large oil producers such as Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman overlook these strategic waters.
From Hormuz transit about 30% of world crude oil, with over 20 million barrels a day handled by sea. In addition to oil, the ships charged with liquefied natural gas (GNL), especially from Qatar to Europe, Asia and China, also pass from here. Just China is one of the major buyers of Iranian crude oil, with imports that touch 1.5 million barrels per day. An interruption of these supplies would force Beijing to turn to other markets, at higher prices, with direct repercussions on global inflation.
Federal Reserve on alert: rates cut at risk
The possible closure of the Strait and the raising of energy prices risk influencing the next decisions of the Federal Reserve. The US Central Bank, which will meet on June 18 to evaluate a possible cut of interest rates, could opt for prudence, leaving rates unchanged.
Despite the pressures of Donald Trump, who urged the Fed to reduce the cost of money, governors may consider more appropriate to avoid monetary stimuli in a context of potential energy inflation. A choice that would have reflected on the US economy, already exposed to international tensions.
Waiting for Tehran’s moves
It now remains to be seen what the real intentions of Iran will be and if the threats of closing of the Hormuz Strait will materialize. The international community observes carefully: any move in that direction could light a new and dangerous energy crisis globally.