THE duties they will slow down theeconomy global and will give a real coup for the growth Of USA, Canada And Mexico with a more modest impact on Europe And Italywhich will suffer anyway. Are the estimates of theOcsewho arrive while Donald Trump pull straight on the commercial war: «No intention» of back on the duties on steel And aluminum.
The US President speak in flight fromAir Force One: hard line to everyone, allies And not. Nothing exemptions on duties For steel And aluminum After the announcement of a fee of 25% together with the one on carwhere instead it remains a question mark on the details. In some cases i duties of the sector will add up to that ‘mutual’because «April 2 is a day of liberation for ours Village».
Overcoming the door that separates the space for i reporter who follow him, Trump In a nutshell, liquidates each prudence with the production chains global in turmoil. And immediately triggers the response of theEU: one of the risks is that the Chinahit by Trumpinhale theEurope Of low cost product. With the European steel losing market share for a decade, Brussels is prepared for a “situation exceptional»With new protections onimport Of steel After the expiry of the current ones in June 2026and an investigation into thealuminum for any measures of safeguard with the possibility of restrictions atimportwhich have the flavor of a ‘Chinese anti-dumping’ (with “dumping” the incorrect commercial practice is defined in which a country exports goods to artificially low prices, often lower than production costs, to eliminate competition and conquer the market).
The risk is one protectionist spiral and a surge in theuncertaintywhose impact is photographed byOcse and risks bringing closer US recessionagainst which the Usa Treasury Secretary Scott Beesent He said that “there is none warranty». In new estimates Ocsethe global growth It is filled from 3.2% in 2024 al 3.1% in 2025 and al 3% in 2026. That of the China from the 4.8% of this year at 4.4% in 2026. There blow instead would arrive for the growth of the USA and his American partnersbetween uncertainty for investments And inflation supported by Import restrictions: from the 2.8% of 2024 there growth It is reduced to a fourth al 2.2% this year (from 2.4% of the previous estimate) and almost halves to the1.6% in 2026 (from 2,1% previous). Trump However, he manages to put in knee the Neighboring countries: The Mexico report -1.3% this year instead of growing with1.2% as expected previously, e -0.6% in 2026. The Canada brake on 0.7% in 2025 and 2026 against 2% Previous.
In the estimates of theOcsewhich warns the central banks from the risks of a return in greatinflationthe Euro area growth accelerates, but less than previously expected, by 0.7% of 2024 at1% of this year at1.2% in 2026. THE’Italy stops at 0.7% this year as in the previous one, and to 0.9% in 2026. With thewarning of OECD Capiteconomista that the estimates do not take into account the last incendiary ads of president-made. And that being a Exporting country«If the planet becomes more protectionist Obviously theItaly It will suffer from it ».
A threat cultured today byformer premier And Leader of Italy Viva Matteo Renziwho target i hesitation of the industrialists: «Wakes upfriends of Confindustria! THE sovereigns Of our home and of Overseas they want destroy you». But above all, the possible triggering of retaliation between USA And EUthat come on duties on the assets they could reach the services (from the ECB Allusions are filtered to the Big American surplus thanks to digital platforms). AND infect the financial flowswhose Usa surplus – parallel to commercial ‘red’ – Fund Wall Street and the US debt.
TheAmerican Chamber of Commerce to the European Unionwhich represents the American companies operating in Europe: in the game there are Commercial and financial relations worth 9,500 billion dollarsa third of Usa GDP. And it is no coincidence that thealarm rebound on the Wall Street Journal.