The crisis in the Middle East is rewriting global energy prices. Brent oil recorded a rise of almost 3%, exceeding 83 dollars a barrel, while US WTI gained 3.8% to reach 77.52 dollars, the highest level since June 2025. During the week, crude oil prices recorded an overall increase of around 15%.
In the March 6 session, Brent reached 91 dollars a barrel, with a jump of 6.6% in a single day, setting the record for the year. According to analysts, if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were to continue, the price of oil could skyrocket to $100 a barrel.
The bottleneck that scares the world
The crucial point is the Strait of Hormuz. About 39 kilometers long, over a fifth of the oil transported by sea in the world and more than 30% of the liquefied natural gas pass through it. The energy reserves that pass through the Strait come from the entire Gulf region, among the strongest in the world from a production point of view: around 20 million barrels per day.
Traffic is now almost completely paralyzed. There are dozens of ships stopped on both sides of the strait, Qatar has voluntarily stopped oil and LNG transfers due to the attacks, and the main shipping companies have suspended routes. This is not a formal closure decreed by Tehran, but a de facto blockade also fueled by the reaction of the insurance market: after the Israeli-US raids against Iranian targets, coverage against the risk of war in the Persian Gulf was suspended or renegotiated, while oil tanker rentals rose to unprecedented levels.
Petrol already on the rise, bills at risk
The escalation has been felt in the pockets of Italians since the beginning of March. The national average prices of self-service petrol and diesel stand at around 1.76 euros per litre, with higher peaks on the motorway and in various plants where petrol has already broken through 2 euros per litre.
If the energy shock were to be prolonged, the effects on bills could be severe: according to analysts’ estimates, price increases could reach up to 30% for electricity and 37% for gas. For a typical family it would mean an additional expense of over 250 euros per year.
The gas problem and the Qatar issue for Italy
On the liquefied natural gas front, the situation is delicate, especially for Italy. Qatar has been the main supplier of LNG by ship to our country for years, covering over 40% of that share in some years. In 2025 the picture has partially changed, with the United States overtaking Qatar to become the leading supplier of LNG. However, a prolonged blockade of routes from the Gulf still significantly affects European supplies, with the price of gas on the TTF market already jumping by more than 20% in just a few days.
The alarm on fertilizers and the food risk
The crisis is not just about fuel and energy. Tensions in the Middle East are also pushing up fertilizer prices, with possible knock-on effects on global food production. The Persian Gulf — led by Qatar and Iran — represents one of the most relevant areas in the world for the production of urea derived from natural gas, an essential fertilizer for global agriculture. The price of urea has risen about 30% in recent days, reaching a high of $600 a ton. A prolonged blockade of the Strait would especially affect countries most dependent on fertilizer imports, such as Brazil and India, with repercussions on global food prices.
What can happen now
According to analysts, if the de facto blockade of the Strait were to persist, crude oil could rise to 100-120 dollars a barrel, with cascading effects on fuel, electricity and inflation. If the military escalation eases, traffic could gradually return to normal within a few weeks. Otherwise, the world could quickly discover how vulnerable a global energy network is that still depends on a strait a few tens of kilometers wide.