The government is preparing to slow down, at least in part, the automatic adjustment of pension requirements to life expectancy, focusing the intervention on two specific categories: early workers and those engaged in strenuous activities.
The measure, which will find space in the next budget, was confirmed in the majority resolution approved by the House and Senate, and provides for a stop in two phases: in 2027 one of the three months of expected increase will be sterilised, while in 2028 a second intervention could be triggered, with the blocking of one or both of the remaining months.
A complex mediation
The details of the measure are still being technically defined. Experts from the Ministry of Economy are working to build a solution that manages to reconcile the protection of the workers most deserving of protection with the need to maintain the balance of public finances. The approach is the same as that followed for the so-called fiscal “scrapping”: two different paths, but united by the principle of selecting the categories considered weakest or deserving of targeted interventions.
The Minister of Economy himself, Giancarlo Giorgetti, explained the philosophy of the intervention and, in a hearing at the Budget Commissions, recalled the concept of “deserving” as a guiding criterion for outlining the boundaries of the measure. The minister also played a mediation role within the majority, not without difficulty.
According to what was leaked from the government summit, Fratelli d’Italia and Forza Italia initially said they were against an intervention of this type, preferring to allocate the available resources to cutting the Irpef and extending the second bracket up to incomes of 60 thousand euros. But the operation, with an estimated cost of around 2.5 billion a year, would have exceeded the margins foreseen for social security spending.
The League also had to scale back its initial proposal for a total stop to automatic adjustment, deemed unsustainable by the technicians of the State General Accounting Office. According to their estimates, in fact, a complete freezing of the mechanism would lead to an increase in the debt/GDP ratio of around 15 points by 2045 and 30 points by 2070: a long-term impact that is too heavy for public finances.
A long-standing mechanism
The mechanism for adjusting pension requirements to life expectancy, often associated with the 2011 Fornero reform, actually dates back to the anti-crisis decrees of 2009 and 2010 passed by the last Berlusconi government. It was then blocked in 2019 by the Conte I government with the decree on Quota 100, and should return into force in 2027, after eight years of suspension.
The categories involved
The reference to arduous and early workers suggests a rather limited group of beneficiaries: less than 20 thousand early exits per year, equal to approximately 3% of new pensioners.
The rules today provide for the possibility of early retirement for those who have paid at least 12 months of contributions before the age of 19 and are in one of the following conditions: long-term unemployment, disability greater than 74%, assistance to disabled family members, or carrying out heavy or demanding jobs.
However, if the government’s interpretation were to be less rigid, the audience could expand, at least within the limits permitted by the available resources.