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The most concrete option on the Table of the interviews in Riad is a possible recovery of theAgreement on the grain of the Black Seathe first great diplomatic result of the war which, before shipwreck in July 2023, had allowed the expedition of millions of tons of wheat and other food products from Ukrainian ports in a year.
The agreement on the grain of the Black Sea – The initiative on the grain of the Black Sea was negotiated in July 2022 between Turkey, UN and Russia – no direct acronym between Moscow and Kiev – To ensure that Ukraine, one of the ‘grain of the Mondò, could export wheat from its southern ports through the Bosphorus. In fact, the cereal could not be exported to the quantities requested using rubber or rail transport through Poland, or via river through Romania. Turkey was the key element of the intensity both for the close relationship between its president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin and because Ankara supervises maritime traffic in the Bosphorus Strait and Dardanelli.
An initiative, two memorandum – The initiative, one of the few diplomatic successes since the beginning of the war, allowed commercial exports of food and fertilizers (including ammonia) from three key Ukrainians in the Black Sea: Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi. The cargo were guided by Ukrainian ships in the international waters of the Black Sea to avoid the mined areas, thus proceeding towards Istanbul along an agreed maritime humanitarian corridor. The ships directed to and by the Ukrainian ports were inspected by teams made up of Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian and United Nations inspectors. To facilitate the implementation of the initiative, the parties have agreed to establish a joint coordination center (JCC) in Istanbul to “guarantee control and monitoring of transport. With the Memorandum, a separate agreement had been signed to minimize the impact of the sanctions on the export of Russian food and fertilizers, based on the principle according to which the measures imposed on the Russian Federation did not apply to these products. Both agreements were subjected to four -monthly and then bimonthly reviews.
A year of exports – Despite the difficulties of the war and the fragility with which the agreement went on, 33 million tons of wheat have left the Ukrainian ports in a year, until July 2023, with 1,100 trips from Ukrainian ports. The world food program purchased about 750,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat which were immediately sent to places such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan. Consequently, the price of wheat has stabilized at about 800 dollars per tonne, falling compared to the maximum reached of $ 1,360.
The shipwreck of the cessation – Already after the first months from the start of the initiative, Russia began to slow down the inspections of wheat ships: in October 2022 10 inspections per day were completed for a total of 4.2 million tons of metrics sent, descended to seven per day in November and two in May, when they left the ports only 1.3 million metric tons. The decrease continued until July 2023, when Russia paraded by the initiative stating that the second part of the agreement, which was to allow greater Russian agricultural exports, had not been honored by the West given that the sanctions on the exports of Russian goods had not been revoked sufficiently, just as the measures had not been withdrawn against its main agricultural bank.
Kiev’s response, a ‘grain corridor’ – A month after the end of the cessation, in August 2023, Ukraine launched a humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea to circumvent the naval blockade of Russia. Until March 2025, the Ukrainian maritime corridor has facilitated the transport of 106 million tons of goods, of which almost 70 million tons of wheat, according to Zelensky’s government. Numbers that could question Kiev’s interest to return to an agreement with Russia.