War and peace. It seems like a subliminal journey in the time machine, to arrive at the Napoleonic epic narrated by Tolstoy. And instead, almost a mockery of history, it is still news of the Third Millennium, which features a humanity “mixed with good and evil”, as Nietzsche prophesied. Except that the million dead in Ukraine and the 70 thousand Palestinians massacred in Gaza are not a matter of philosophy, but of international politics. They are its most visible victims, along with the hundreds of thousands of other “forgotten” wars. Hidden conflicts, as they do not interest any of the powers that matter. Today the world is certainly more in crisis than yesterday, because it is no longer what it was yesterday. The old planetary order, defended with drawn sword by the West, given that this guaranteed it the greatest share of wealth per capita, is shaking under the blows of multipolarism. And this inevitably puts the USA and Europe on a collision course with the South of the planet, with the newly industrialized countries, with the “non-aligned” and, above all, against Russia and China.
Ukraine and Gaza
The most striking cases of open conflict are, without a doubt, that of Ukraine and that of Gaza (and the West Bank). With the caveat that in the first case it is a bloody war, in which however the attacking Russians have found fierce resistance. In the second case, however, we are in the presence of a retaliation transformed into ethnic cleansing, with evident crimes against humanity. International politics is the art of possible things, not desirable ones. And the use of force is not, as Von Clausewitz wrote, “the continuation of politics by other means”, but is instead the act that determines its failure. Every war is already a resounding defeat for all governments that decide, for whatever reason, to drag their country into an abyss. The epochal fibrillations of the planet, then, also become the mirror of the crisis of diplomacy, subjected to a class of improvised leaders.
In essence and paradoxically, today we run a greater risk of triggering World War III than we did 50 years ago. And the reason is simple: it seems that no one is afraid of nuclear power anymore. Wrong. A “theater” atomic war, with “field” devices, could be unleashed in extreme cases, in the central-eastern plains of the Old Continent. Meanwhile, the United States officially invites Europe to think about itself and not have “unrealistic” illusions about the war in Ukraine. Because from now on they have other things to think about. Mainly, they must deploy all resources to stem China’s rise. And win, at the very least, the economic confrontation already underway with the Asian giant. All this is written in Trump’s “New National Security Strategy”, made known a few weeks ago and which underlines the need “to strengthen and enhance military capabilities in the Western Pacific – writes the Wall Street Journal – to discourage potential Chinese aggression”. «United States diplomatic efforts – explains the text of the Strategy – should focus on pressuring our allies and partners in the First Island Chain to allow the US military greater access to their ports and other facilities». In short, if World War III is to break out, it is likely that it will happen in China, according to the Americans. This is why they can’t wait to get away from Europe.