“At current prices, the average EU family would lose around 375 euros in 2026, equivalent to 0.7% of average consumption, due to all price increases.” This is what Oya Celasun, deputy director for Europe of the Monetary Fund, told the Eurogroup.
“The impact varies greatly, from 620 euros in Slovakia to 134 euros in Sweden. According to the IMF WEO “severe” scenario of April 2026, the average loss would rise to 1,750 euros.”
The intervention graph also includes estimates for Italy: from the Fund we learn in detail that the estimated impact for Italy is 450 euros in the basic scenario and 2,270 euros in the severe one.
“Downside risks are growing for the Eurozone, markets pessimistic on energy”
“Under the baseline scenario, growth in the Eurozone is expected to slow to 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, with inflation rising by 0.7 percentage points to 2.6% in 2026 and declining to 2.2% in 2027. In April’s ‘severe’ downside scenario, the euro area could move closer to recession.” The IMF writes this in its outlook on the EU and the high energy prices, reporting the estimates already released in April and underlining that “the markets are becoming more pessimistic about energy prices”, approaching the “scenario adverse”https://gazzettadelsud.it/articoli/economia/2026/05/05/il-caro-energia-pesera-450-euro-sulle-famiglie-italiane-2-270-con-uno-scenario-grave-56f3b3e0-aff3-4805-838d-42ba1cd4e6ea/.”The downside risks are increasing”, highlights the Fund.
“Energy shock pushes spreads, risks for stability”
With the energy shock “yields and spreads on government bonds have increased, however, the situation could worsen further, as expected in the adverse and more severe scenarios”. The IMF writes this, underlining that “equity valuations in some sectors are high and an increase in spreads on government bonds could have repercussions on the private sector, damaging credit quality” and calling for “careful monitoring of these risks to financial stability”.
‘Giving up the ETS would threaten EU progress on energy’
“Recent price volatility in energy markets is just the latest reminder that Europe’s dependency remains a key vulnerability. This makes it crucial that Europe stays the course and adopts policies to increase energy security. Specifically, giving up the ETS would threaten Europe’s progress towards renewable energy.” The International Monetary Fund underlines this, highlighting that “Europe must also complete its single energy market”.