The European Commission foresees For Italy stable but moderate growth in the next two years, With an increase of 0.7% in 2025 (revised downward compared to 1% estimated in autumn) and 0.9% in 2026 (in November 1.2% was estimated. Growth – explain by Brussels – will be supported by internal demand, in particular by public investments linked to the Recovery, which will continue to play a central role in the estate of the economy. Despite an uncertain international context, with commercial tensions and Tassi still High, Brussels recognizes signs of resilience in the labor market and in the dynamics of consumption. At 2023.
In 2024, Italian GDP stabilized 0.7%, with moderate growth in internal demand and a positive contribution from net exports. Families consumption increased by only 0.4%, as the resumption of real available income was partly absorbed by an increase in the savings rate. Investments grew by 0.5%, driven by a surge in non -residential (especially public) construction, supported by European funds, which has more than compensated for the drop in investments in homes and capital goods. The drop in imports, combined with the solid expansion of the exported services, has contributed positively to the growth of GDP.
For 2025, the Commission confirms a 0.7%stable GDP. THEIn question is expected in acceleration, but exports will be penalized by the US duties, while imports will grow with the increase in internal demand. Private consumption will increase by 1.2%, in line with the real available income, supported by the growth of employment and the resumption of real wages. The gross fixed investments are also expected, with a recovery of the investment in instrumental assets, favored by a gradual locking of monetary policy that lowers the financing costs. However, the recovery will be weaker than expected, due to the decline in the trust of companies and the volatility of the markets linked to commercial tensions. The recovery funds will continue to support non -residential construction, maintaining a “substantially neutral” tax position despite the current adjustment. The abolition of the building bonuses in 2024, however, will cause a strong drop in residential investments.
In 2026, economic growth is expected to improve at 0.9%. Private consumption will continue to increase, and investments will accelerate thanks to the resumption of infrastructure buildings and at the end of the collapse in the living sector. However, foreign trade will negatively contribute to growth, as the full impact of the US duties will manifest itself in that year. The loss will be partially compensated by the diversification of the export markets. The occupation will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Employed with stable contracts will increase more than self -employed workers. The unemployment rate will fall further, thanks to an employment growth stronger than the increase in the workforce, in a context of decline in the population of working age.
Inflation will remain contained. The slowdown in energy prices and the appreciation of the euro will continue to exercise downward pressure on overall inflation, which will remain below 2% in 2025 and will drop to 1.5% in 2026. Salari will grow more slowly, reflecting contained inflation expectations and the need to maintain competitiveness in a more difficult commercial environment. Increased productivity will also contribute to the descent of prices.
The public deficit dropped to 3.4% of GDP in 2024, thanks to the end of the tax credits for the Superbonus, to the withdrawal of energy measures and greater tax revenues (especially from income and financial activities). The primary balance has returned positive (0.4% of GDP), while interest expenditure rose to 3.9%. In 2025, the deficit will go further than 3.3%, with a slight improvement in the primary balance and expenditure for stable interests. Tax revenues will grow slightly, also due to the replacement of the cutting of the tax wedge with new medium-low income bonuses and reformulated tax credits. Public wages will increase moderately, and public investments will return to grow, still supported by the PNRR.
In 2026, the deficit should drop to 2.9% of GDP, with a primary balance at 1.1% and an expense for slightly increased interest to 4% of GDP. The public debt, however, is in the rise: rising to 135.3% of GDP in 2024 (from 134.6%), it will still grow up to 138.2% in 2026. The increase is mainly due to stock-influxes related to the delay effects of building bonuses, and a negative differential between interest rates and growth.