“In Italy the South is growing 4 times more than France and Germany together”. Tow the North


By John

Although in 2023 the Noon is destined to remain the area that in Italy will register theincrease in GDP more contained (+1% approximately compared to +1.1% in the Center and +1.2% in the North), however will surpass that of France (+0.8%) and especially that of Germany (-0.3%) which is in full technical recession. The estimate is from the Research Office of the Cgia of Mestre (Venice).

Calculating the simple average of the growth rate of Paris and Berlin, the result stands at +0.25%; this implies that our South will also grow four times more than France and Germany combined. «Italy – comments the CGIA – is defending itself better than the others, also thanks to the South. But there is more: even the UK will remain behind us: in the ranking of economic growth for 2023 it should stop at +0.4%, a historical result which demonstrates how Italy and especially the South have overcome the negative effects caused by the pandemic, the energy crisis and the inflation boom better than our main competitors».

The three reasons for growth

There are three reasons for this growth. The first it concerns the amount of aid put in place by the last executives to face the pandemic crisis and the effects of high energy prices at a national level. Between refreshments, non-repayable contributions, layoffs, economic bonuses, healthcare recruitments, at least 180 billion euros were disbursed between 2020 and 2022. To these must be added another 91 billion to mitigate the increases in electricity and gas prices. The second one the reason concerns the recovery of household consumption and that of investments in construction which, in the two-year period 2021-2022, mainly affected the South. The thirdfinally, it is attributable to the strong increase in gross fixed investments in the South which, thanks also to the resources made available by the Pnrr, particularly affected the construction sector.

But the situation remains critical

Despite the positive signs, however, the general situation in the South is still critical: as in the rest of the country, there is a sharp slowdown in the economy due to inflation and the consequent increase in interest rates decided by the ECB. The critical issues that have always afflicted the South are still waiting for a solution: the unemployment rate, especially among young people and women, remains very high, the level of poverty and social exclusion is worrying, the infrastructural deficit constitutes an obstacle to development and the he efficiency of the Public Administration is among the worst in Europe.

The signs of the turning point

However, there are signs capable of giving substance to a turning point and they could consolidate if in the next three years we manage to spend all the resources that the Pnrr has allocated to the South well. In 2023, Lombardy will drive GDP growth, with a growth forecast of +1.29%. Followed by Veneto with +1.24%, Trentino Alto Adige with +1.23, Lazio with +1.18 and Piedmont-Valle d’Aosta with +1.17. Campania closes the ranking with +0.86%, Molise with +0.84 and Basilicata with +0.82. The regions that have not yet recovered from the collapse in GDP that occurred in 2020 are Calabria, with a negative differential compared to 2019 of 0.25, Molise (0.83), Valle d’Aosta (0.88), Liguria (2.02) and especially Tuscany (3.22). At the provincial level, Ascoli Piceno leads the 2023 growth ranking, with an increase in added value compared to last year of 2.10%. Followed by Milan (+1.86%), Venice and Trapani (+1.85%); followed by Macerata (+0.25%), Vibo Valentia (+0.07%) and Gorizia with (+0.04%).