Italy remains among the most resilient economies in Europe despite the new wave of duties and trade barriers. In the first half of 2025, exports reached 322.6 billion euros, up 2.1%, while France and Germany recorded a decline of 0.9%. This is what emerges from the 2025 International Trade Forum, organized by ARcom Formazione with the patronage of the EU Commission, Simest, Aice and the Lombardy Region. “Tariffs are no longer just an economic tool: they have become a geopolitical weapon,” said Sara Armella, managing partner of the Armella & Associati firm and scientific director of the Forum. In the United States, average tariffs reached 17.9%, the highest since 1934, with customs revenues tripling to $29.6 billion per month.
According to the Ice Agency, Italian companies will have to bear up to 10.6 billion euros in additional costs, with a possible impact on GDP between -0.2% and -1.4%. «Italy demonstrates resilience in a context of strong global competition», commented Valentino Valentini, deputy minister of Business and Made in Italy, warning that geopolitical fragmentation could cause world trade to lose up to 3,000 billion dollars by 2035. The ARcom white paper also identifies an unexpressed potential of 85 billion euros on new export routes, which today represent only 13% of total. The European Union, which has 45 free trade agreements with 79 non-EU countries, generates 46% of European foreign trade from these markets. In his video speech, Raffaele Fitto, executive vice-president of the EU Commission, recalled that “trade remains a lever for growth and jobs: a balance is needed between openness and defense of the rules, with a strong European voice”.