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White smoke between Washington and Tehran. An agreement of approximately two pages – already renamed the “Islamabad Memorandum” – would put an end to the war between the United States and Iran and would provide for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pending further negotiations in the next 60 days. The official signature is expected on Friday in Geneva; The issues regarding frozen assets, sanctions and the nuclear program remain open.
The naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz
France and Great Britain would be ready to lead a mission in the Strait of Hormuz, with the support of Italy and the Netherlands, to contribute to the reopening of the sea route once the agreement between the United States and Iran is effectively implemented. This was announced by French President Emmanuel Macron, interviewed by TF1 from Evian-les-Bains, at the opening of the G7. According to the resident of the Elysée, the mission could be deployed “within two or three days”. For Macron “the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz with the imposition of tolls would be contrary to international law”.
Hormuz, the toll hub
Different versions remain regarding the transit of the ships. US President Donald Trump has announced that there will be no tolls for crossing the Strait. Tehran, for its part, introduces a distinction: no tolls, but tariffs for maritime services. «Iran has always stated that it does not want to collect tolls – declared the spokesperson of the Iranian Foreign Ministry Esmaeil Baqaei – however, in exchange for the services that we will provide, including navigation services, environmental protection, possible naval insurance and other services that will be provided by Iran and Oman, the necessary tariffs will be collected». According to Tehran, the toll exemption would be valid “only for 60 days”. US Vice President Vance said he expected “the Strait to reopen without tolls in the long term”.
The points of the memorandum
End of the war. The agreement would immediately interrupt military operations on all fronts involved so far, including Lebanon. However, the crux of the Israeli position remains: Defense Minister Katz reiterated that Israel will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.
Frozen assets. According to Tehran sources, one of the clauses would provide for the release of 24 billion dollars of immobilized Iranian assets during the 60-day negotiation window; half of the sum should be made available to the Islamic Republic immediately, before the start of subsequent talks. The circumstance was not confirmed by the American counterpart.
Sanctions. Also according to senior Iranian officials, Washington should temporarily suspend restrictions on Iranian oil until a final agreement is reached. It is one of the dossiers on which, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi, the negotiations over the next two months will focus.
Nuclear. The focus of the post-agreement technical talks will be Iran’s atomic program. Trump reportedly said that the issue “will be addressed in the next two months”, threatening a resumption of attacks in the absence of a final agreement. Two hypotheses are on the table: according to US officials, Tehran would destroy its uranium stocks, while the Iranian counterpart would argue that the memorandum would allow dilution within the country.