The ‘Liberation Day‘ Of Trump leave the Milan stock exchange peak for the third consecutive session with losses, then returned to -5.18% in closing, up to beyond the 7%. And theuncertainty It makes you fly spread up above 130at the maximum of November: the investors do not take the invitation of the politics to avoid “alarmism” and fear for the growth of Italyparticularly exposed toExport to the USAwith the Def to be published that will have to operate one downward review Compared to estimates of September. And deal with the economic categories asking aid.
Bankitalia And Confindustria they had already anticipated a growth of just it 0.6%halved with respect to1.2% of the structural budget plan. An assessment that does not take into consideration the effects of Commercial retaliation, uncertaintiesresponse of theEurope with a negotiation which is just at the beginning. There is a special observations that is lo Chinese yuanwhere one devaluation by Beijing as a response to duties at 34% of Trump would give a dramatic turn to the commercial war. And there is theimpoverishment effect for families with Piazza Affari in free fall, ballast by the strong weight of the banks get to lose the 12%.
THE’technical hypothesis for the Def arriving at Council of Ministers Wednesday focuses on one growth under 1%. Second Carlo Cottarellian economist already head of the Budget Affairs Department of IMFthe numbers indicate «much lower values“Even compared to 0.6%: to be on this rhythm, after the weakness end 2024it would be needed0.2% expansion In each quarter of the 2025.
Of course, the government it may want to count Aid to businesses: The Business minister Adolfo Urso anticipates a comparison for tomorrow. There is thehopes of a positive outcome by the negotiation entered into byEU with the White house. But it seems impossible to1%. “There will be a important impactin the short term, for the US growth. I respect Italy a +0.4% for 2025 e 0.8% For 2026 on the hypothesis that Trump maintains high and permanent ratesalthough probably lower than those announced, “he says Lorenzo Codognofounder and chief economist of Macro lc.
Numbers who would impact on the debton which the greater cost of btp for the MEF: with it spread who closed a 125i Btp al 3.86% pagan 40 cents more than six months ago also for the effect of Turn in Berlin on military spending. It would not be needed correction thanks to new rules of budgetand some stimulus to GDP would find support in the political climate created by German derogation for the defense stability pact. Emanuele Orsinipresident of Confindustriaasks to draw on European funds for the cohesion And Transition 5.0 For a new plan of Investment incentives “at least 30%». “You need one direction and one wide -ranging vision»In front of losses estimated in Two billion euros according to the president of Federvini Micaela Pallini.
But the PNRR resources – second Cottarelli – I am “small“If the crisis He had to get heavy. A tax lever there would be and could come from EU response to Trump: the taxation of the giants of the web To rebalance the taxes paid by big tech and those paid by shopkeepersintervention until yesterday battle horse of the right: «There are no more reasons To postpone a intervention which we have been needed for a long time, “says the president of Confesercenti Patrizia De Luise.