The attack against Iran and Tehran’s retaliation against the Gulf countries risk unleashing a real shock on markets and international trade. A glimpse has already been had in recent hours: hundreds of oil tankers and liquefied gas ships stopped on the sides of the Strait of Hormuz and the commercial container ships of international logistics giants such as Maesrk forced to divert from the Gulf have pushed up the price of oil. In over-the-counter trading on the unregulated market, the barrel literally jumped by 10%, suggesting strong turbulence starting from the start of the Asian stock markets this evening. The price of Brent, the international benchmark for crude oil prices, flew from 72.8 at Friday’s close to 80 dollars.
Trump’s reassurances
Beyond the reassurances of Donald Trump, who said he was “not at all worried” about the trend of the barrel, analysts are already predicting an approach to 100 dollars, the threshold last reached when the war broke out in Ukraine. “We expect prices to open near $100 a barrel and perhaps rise above that level if we see a prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz,” says Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at Icis. An estimate also shared by experts from Barclays and other large banks who also foresee an impact on gas prices. The increase in production of over 200 thousand barrels per day decided for the month of April by the eight OPEC+ member countries could therefore be of little value. The increase is higher than expected, but represents a minimal percentage of the cartel’s production and is already considered insignificant compared to the difficulties that could arise from a prolonged interruption of the Strait controlled by the Pasdaran, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas production passes. All the more so since those countries, starting with Saudi Arabia, which use the sea route for their exports the most, would increase the extraction quota the most. The alternative oil pipelines, which Riyadh also has, are not capable of passing the same quantities of crude oil.
The effects of the war risk being seriously felt on Western stock markets. The Middle Eastern markets open on Sunday in Jordan, Egypt and Oman recorded significant losses, in the wake of Riyadh where the leading index fell by 2%. And the decision to suspend trading on Monday and Tuesday in Dubai and Abu Dhabi does not play in the markets’ favour. Only the oil giant Saudi Aramco moved against the trend, dragged up by more than 3% precisely by bets on a rapid increase in crude oil prices. Oil stocks in Asia and Europe could also show a similar trend tomorrow, but the breath remains suspended due to the repercussions on global trade and the inflationary wave that a possible continuing rise in energy prices could trigger. Furthermore, all eyes will also be on the shares of airlines, doubly penalized by the stop of flights in the Middle Eastern mega hubs and by the feared increase in fuel costs. However, the trend went against the trend today for Bitcoin which – after the confirmation of Khamenei’s death – recovered Saturday’s losses, rising to 68,000 dollars.