S&P raises the rating of Italy bringing it from BBB to BBB+ with stable outlook. A vote that rewards, explains the rating agency political stability and markets. And if the growth stops at 0.6% this year the debt-pil ratio will then stabilize starting from 2028.
“The government of the premier Giorgia Meloni, among the longest -lived in recent Italian history, enjoys a solid public support. He also benefits from a stable parliamentary majority and limited threats of opposition, which makes his stay in power likely to 2027. This political continuity has contributed to preserving the stability of the financial markets and supporting constant progress”, underlines the agency. A vote that, underlines the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti, “rewards the seriousness of the approach of the Italian government to budget policy.
In the general climate of uncertainty, prudence and responsibility they will continue to be our line of action “.
The vote comes after the calculations of the new public finance document marked by caution: 2025 starts with an estimated growth of the economy at +0.25%. A slow step oriented to reach +0.6% at the end of the year. But the scenario is dominated by strong “reduction risks” and by a high and growing “uncertainty”, it is the warning that now accompanies any official forecast. Trump’s duties or possible financial shocks, in fact, could ballast the GDP or inflate the already huge debt. The former Def thus sets the new estimates and confirms the government’s commitment to strengthen the family policies. But which also certifies the transition flop 5.0 and the tax arrangement for VAT matches.
The DFP has reached the rooms, which must examine it before sending – by the end of the month – in Brussels. The economic perspectives “appear more uncertain and complex” and the need to respond to the new issues of security and duties place “complex challenges”, warns the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti in the premise, which confirms the prudence line: the government “will respond by safeguarding the budget discipline”. Also for the EU common defense, Italy reiterates the centrality of the “sustainability” of the accounts.
The tendential macroeconomic framework traced in the DFP fixes the GDP to +0.6% this year and at +0.8% both in 2026 and in 2027.
Thus reducing the estimates developed in the autumn in the PSB ( +1.2% for this year, +1.1% next and +0.8% in 2027). And align them with that of the Bank of Italy. A scenario that points out the Institute of via Nazionale, includes only “a first and partial assessment of the effects of the duties” and which “could be particularly pronounced with any return measures, further increases in uncertainty and prolonged tensions on the financial markets”.
Meanwhile, 2025 starts at a slow pace. GDP is “increased to moderate extent in the first months”, indicates Bankitalia. A step that the Parliamentary Budget Office quantifies in “A quarter of a percentage point” in the first quarter: a moderate growth but higher than the two previous quarters “, explains the authority of public accounts. Which gives the ok to the tendential picture traced by the MEF in the DFP (it is in an “acceptable” interval), but with a warning: “the uncertainty that characterizes the forecasts is extraordinarily high” and “the risks are clearly oriented downwards”. According to the simulations contained in the DFP, the effect of the duties could reduce 2025 GDP to +0.3%, while a financial shock would also weigh down the debt, bringing it close to 140% in 2027. Some good news reaches companies, however: “Despite the significant exposure of our production system to the US market”, according to the Bank of Italy, they will be able to mitigate the damage thanks to some of their characteristics, high -end whose buyers do not let themselves be discouraged by the increases and have good profits that manage to better absorb the blow.
In this scenario that offers few action margins, the government is willing to support the birth and the family: the executive “will confirm and expand a plurality of policy tools that intervene on the factors that affect the choice of parenting and the demand for services for early childhood”, reads the DFP. But in the document the analysis of progress also returns some difficulties on some measures.
Transition 5.0, the aid plan to the companies introduced in 2024 to encourage the digital and energy transition process, had a pull of just 500 million and remain about 5.7 billion to be granted within the second quarter 2026. While the composition with creditors, the pact with the tax authorities for VAT matches, recorded almost 585,000 members: just 13% of the subjects potentially interested.