Rates are falling, given the moves made and about to be made by the ECB, but the slowdown in GDP continues to slow down the demand for loans from banks with only some signs of recovery coming from families, where mortgage rates are falling. The monthly report from the Abi ), depresses business demands, especially investments. This is an element that does not bode well for the coming months either, given the more diluted effect of medium-long term and larger-scale financing over time. As the banking association report states, “the decline in credit volumes is a consequence of the slowdown in economic growth which contributes to depressing the demand for loans.”
In September 2024, loans to businesses and households fell by 1.2% compared to a year earlier, slowing from the decline recorded in August 2024 (-2.0%) when loans to businesses fell by 3, 5% and those to families 0.6%. And the deputy dg Gianfranco Torriero during the conference call on the report he noted that “the Bank of Italy data show us an increase in business deposits in August of 26 billion compared to the same month of 2023”. A growth that indicates “greater robustness of companies” and strong liquidity available. An element that emerges, he recalled, also from the central bank’s investigations according to which companies do not foresee liquid needs and investments in the coming months. A scenario that weighs therefore on the demand for loans which remains negative, also in perspective, although the improved conditions on rates have attenuated the decline. The moves of the ECB, which will now almost certainly cut rates next week and is preparing to decisively embark on the path of reductions in the coming months, have already caused the market to move. The Euribor and Irs indices moved in time and are now at 3.2 and 2.4% respectively with drops between 76 and 110 basis points compared to the highs of 2023. This is also why the average rate on new mortgages detected by Abi in September fell from 3.59 to 3.33%, and down compared to 4.42% in December 2023. However, the rate for businesses fell below the 5% threshold, equal to 4.96% compared to 5, 13% in August 2024 and 5.45% in December.
However, levels are still high and which, associated with strict rules on creditworthiness, lead banks and business associations to ask for the strengthening of the Guarantee Fund managed by Mcc to support some of the business sectors. For Torriero, however, it is “a part of the total loans”, “not everything is supported by guarantees” and many of those disbursed during Covid are being repaid. For this reason, joint work is underway with Mimit and Mef with the aim of continuing and relaunching the instrument expiring at the end of the year. As the CEO of Invitalia explained Bernardo Mattarella «the incentives that we manage, almost all of the incentives for companies, are aimed at those that have yet to be born, therefore startups, at companies that want to consolidate, up to large companies that want to make strategic investments. In 2023 alone we supported 64,000 businesses, not counting those assisted by the Mediocredito Centrale Guarantee Fund which Invitalia controls. There are 4,200 new businesses, mostly in the South and almost half are women’s businesses.”