The European Union is ready to accelerate the indefinite extension of the sanctions that freeze Russian assets in Europe, and could do so as early as this week, before the leaders’ summit on 18-19 December which will have to decide on financing for Ukraine. The idea, reported by the Financial Times, would be to circumvent the probable Hungarian veto by approving the permanent extension with a qualified majority decision.
From what we learn in Brussels, the move would also serve to reassure Belgium, the most reluctant to the Reparation loan to Kiev which is based on the 210 billion of Russian sovereign assets immobilized by sanctions in Europe, of which 185 billion held in the Belgian Euroclear (even if the operation would start with a loan of 90 billion over two years).
Belgium raises the legal front against the use of Article 122
However, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has opened a new front, hypothesizing legal recourse if the EU were to adopt the loan by qualified majority through Article 122, the rule on economic emergency measures: according to him it is not applicable because a measure similar to a sanction requires unanimity.
Lagarde’s opening (ECB): “Solution close to international principles”
The political turning point comes on a day also marked by the intervention of ECB President Christine Lagarde, who clearly opened up the mechanism proposed by the Commission. “It is the solution closest to international principles,” he said, assuring that “this is an exceptional case that does not affect Russian ownership.”
Waiting for the leaders’ summit and the Italian position
Despite Lagarde’s green light, with De Wever’s intervention the situation becomes complicated again. In the meantime, at the meeting of the permanent representatives of the 27 the preparation of the European Council was discussed: the discussion remains open, as do the draft conclusions, and several countries, including Italy, do not want, according to what transpires from European sources, to anticipate solutions on the Reparation loans, leaving the political decision to the summit.
Bart De Wever’s three conditions for the Belgian green light
Returning to De Wever, he posed three conditions for the Belgian green light: the mutualisation of the risk, the availability of immediate liquidity in the event that Belgium had to repay sums taken to guarantee the assets (or even more, by virtue of the bilateral treaty with Moscow) and a fair sharing of the risk linked to possible Russian countermeasures. While assuring that «it is not in Belgium’s DNA to behave in Europe like Hungary», the prime minister said he was “sceptical”: «It’s a lot of work in a week».
Majority in favor and the need for a bridging solution
According to what emerges in Brussels, however, there is already a clear majority of countries in favor of the Reparation loan to finance Kiev. Even with an agreement at the summit on 18-19 December, however, it would only be the beginning of a long technical construction site: national transposition will take weeks, with parliamentary steps necessary in several states.
To avoid financial gaps, the Commission, G7 and IMF are also already working on a bridging solution that guarantees funds to Ukraine as early as the first quarter of 2026, in particular for military support, while waiting for the new financing architecture for Ukraine to be defined.