Europe is in shock. Donald Trump chose the day of the “historic” signing of the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement for his unprecedented attack against some of his main allies, evidently guilty of having raised too much pressure on Greenland. The 8 countries targeted – Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and the United Kingdom, the last two being non-EU but NATO members – have issued a joint statement in which they assure that they intend to respond “in a united and coordinated way” to “defend” their “sovereignty”.
Macron for the nuclear option
That such words are directed at the US is astonishing. French President Emmanuel Macron, according to his advisors, intends to go into practice by asking for “the activation of the anti-coercion instrument”. That is, the nuclear option, never used before against any nation. According to the Financial Times, the Europeans, in view of the meetings with Trump in Davos, are considering countermeasures worth 93 billion dollars. This detail alone makes it clear how much we are navigating in uncharted waters. At the European level, “constant contacts” are ongoing both between leaders and Sherpas and ambassadors to the European Union, as well as between the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, and other heads of state and government.
Europe’s credibility is at stake
Europe’s credibility is at stake but finding a solution will not be easy since, among the 27, there are very different sensitivities. Just look at what is happening on the front of European political families. The EPP has raised the possibility of suspending the US-EU agreement on tariffs, reached last summer, but for now it has remained silent on the economic bazooka. S&D and Renew, on the other hand, aim both to stop the agreement and to activate the shield. Ecr, for its part, slows down both. “We are against escalations,” Nicola Procaccini, co-president of the group in the European Chamber, told ANSA. “We are in favor of easing the tone and the anti-coercion instrument does not go in this direction: the agreement on US-EU tariffs has been in force since August and, contrary to the concerns of many, has been fruitful for both parties”, he added. The leader of Renew Europe, Valérie Hayer, instead wrote to Costa and the President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen asking to move from “dependence to deterrence”. “Anti-coercion is our economic nuclear weapon,” he explained. “It allows us immediate retaliation: punitive duties, market access bans, financial sanctions, suspension of US patents and licenses, without the UN or the WTO: the United States exports over 500 billion dollars a year to the EU, we are their largest market,” he argued. “Trump should think twice, we are not afraid to use deterrence for our defense.”
Meloni talks about misunderstandings
Finding the necessary consensus for such a radical measure, however, will not be a walk in the park. Giorgia Meloni, for example, from the Far East, after speaking with Trump, evoked the possibility of misunderstandings between the US and its European allies and reiterated the need for “dialogue”. The secretary of NATO, Mark Rutte, also took to the field and spoke with the occupant of the White House “on the security situation in Greenland and the Arctic”. “We will continue to work on this topic – he underlined – and I look forward to meeting him in Davos at the end of this week”. In short, the two main European ‘bridgemen’ (both, for different reasons, held up as the tycoon’s ‘enchanters’) are engaged in mediation.
The risk of a downward spiral
The sensation, in any case, is that with each trip the recomposition becomes more and more complex, with increasing efforts. “Tariff threats undermine transatlantic relations and risk triggering a dangerous downward spiral,” the 8 warned. The world order “as we know it” and the “future” of NATO are at stake, thundered Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen from Oslo, where he set off on an emergency tour that will also take him to Sweden and Great Britain. “I have no doubt – he added – that there is strong European support and that it is of a generous nature.” Meanwhile, the 27 permanent representatives to the EU met for an emergency meeting in a limited format (ambassadors+1). That is, the blue-starred ‘deep state’ crisis format. “It will certainly not be the last word on this matter”, ventures a senior European official, clarifying that “decisions reserved for politicians are not expected”. A first round of the table, therefore, for a count of the positions: the EU has its procedures to respect.