The duties imposed by Trump risk ballast the GDP of two to three tenths of point in 2025. With repercussions also at work, which could translate into 68 thousand less employed. It is a danger of concrete relocation that involves a thousand companies. It is a FICA forecast that comes from several institutional bodies, which, in the face of the uncertainties posed by the new moves of the US administration, try to translate the possible repercussions to the Italian economy into numbers. The theme of duties dominates auditions on the public finance document (DFP). And it cannot be otherwise, given that this variable risks disrupting the growth estimates that the government has just revised downwards ( +0.6% this year and +0.8% the next two).
“The possible persistence of uncertainty and an increase in commercial tensions” would have on the growth of GDP a negative impact of 2 tenths of point in 2025 and of three tenths in 2026, estimates Istat, which speaks of a “partial evaluation and subject to the difficulty of hypothesizing not only the evolution of the main exogenous variables but also the response of economic and commercial policy by governments and central banks”. A forecast not very different from that formulated by the Confindustria Study Center: with the duties at 20%, the growth of GDP would be contained at 0.3% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026. Viale dell’Astronomy defines the rates as a “earthquake in global production chains” and also warns of the “concrete” risk of relocation: there are a thousand large companies at stake, which give work to 1.5 million. of employees. but also taking into account the induced effects, the duties will impact “on almost all the sectors of the Italian economy”, warns the Budget Parliamentary Office, “with an aggregate loss of added value in the order of three tenths of the percentage point” and in terms of employment a quantifiable effect “in about 68 thousand less total employed”.
According to the UPB simulations, the pharmaceutical sectors, extractive activities, automotive activities, chemicals, metallurgical activities and manufacture of machinery are affected. In perspective, the effects of the duties will weigh on the European and Italian economy, observes the Bank of Italy. The “high quality” of the assets that we sell in the United States and the “large profit margins” of some companies “will be able to temporarily mitigate their impact”, repeats via Nazionale, but we are not yet safe: “A repercussions – warns – will be inevitable if there will be a strong slowdown in world trade”. A picture of uncertainty in which Italy, precisely to achieve growth objectives, cannot however afford to “abandon” the objectives of the PNRR, is the warning of the Court of Auditors. While the delays that risk compromising their full realization by 2026 are highlighted from many sides. It is “physiological” which, regardless of the achievement of the objectives by the end of 2026, “part of the expenditure must also be accounted for in subsequent exercises”, already account for the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti. Meanwhile, it also looks to the plan in a duties key: as part of the reprogramming, he explains, you can find “resources to be allocated to companies, workers and sectors more affected by the commercial war”.