Donald Trump accelerates on the respite in Ukraine announcing the long wait phone call with Vladimir Putin In the next few hours, which it could follow, it is the hope oftenant of the White Housea declaration of peace.
“We have excellent chances of putting an end to this war», Said the American president aboard theAir Force Oneflaunting optimism despite the Leader of the Kremlin has not yet dissolved the reserve on cease-fire one month proposed by United States and already accepted by Volodymyr Zelensky. On the contrary, Putin has so far held back, outlining a series of conditionsincluding the suspension of the rearmament ofUkraine and of Western military aid.
“We worked a lot in weekend»He explained The Donaldwho spoke of “progress” in the negotiations. There spokesman Karoline Leavitt reiterated that “we are a few steps away” from a agreement. “We have never been closer to the peace than we are at this moment: we are at the last 10 IARDE. And the presidentas you know, is determined to reach aunderstanding», Also pushing himself – according to some sources to Traffic light – up to recognition from the Russian crimea.
The Kremlin confirmed the phone call between the two leader but he has not revealed any details on theagenda. “There conversation It is in fact under preparation but, in our opinion, of course, one conversation between two presidents it is not subject to priori to any significant discussion. Therefore, we will not do it, “said the spokesman Dmitry Peskov. “We will talk about landswhich as you know are very different from how they were before the warand we will talk about power plants», Specified the Commander-in-chief answering a question about “concessions” necessary to get tounderstanding.
Just this will be the node more difficult to dissolve. If on the one hand Zelensky continues to reiterate that the sovereignty and theintegrity of his Village they are not negotiableon the other side Putin has placed the withdraw from the Troops by Kiev from all four regions conquered militarily and attached illegally – Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzia – Like one condition for the peace.
And then there is the question from the nuclear power plant Of Zaporizhziathe greatest d ‘Europenow controlled by Russia. It is likely that Trump It refers to the Strategic system When he said he had “A lot of discussed with Russia and Ukraine” For “Divide certain assets”.
After the disastrous meeting in Oval studyThe Ukrainian leader accepted the idea of having to yield on some points but continues to press for having insurance on the long -term safetyincluding the strengthening of his army.
“It’s one immutable priority and on this theme You cannot come back backwards. The defense forces and of safety ofUkraineThe Industrial defense complex and theinteraction more levels with i partner constitute the foundation of ours independence», He wrote on Telegram After a encounter with his Defense Minister, Rustm UMEROVand the new Chief of staffThe General Andriy Gnatov.
Set, at least for the entire duration of the Trump presidencyThe Ukrainian dream to enter the Born, Zelensky can still count on the support Of European Union, Great Britain and Canadawho are working together to build a defensive umbrella For Kiev and ensure that the Russia Yes engagements for one lasting peace. The Canadian premier spoke in weekend with the Ukrainian president and invited him to Summit of the G7 in Alberta next June.
Meanwhile, in view of the interview with PutintheTrump Administration announced the withdraw frominternational body established in 2023 fromEuropean Union to investigate the responsible leaders ofInvasion of Ukraine by the Russiaincluding the Russian president.
It is thelast of a series of decisions which indicate the progressive rapprochement Of Washington to Flyafter it dismantling In the weekend Of Voice of America And Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. It is not a case that the Kremlin welcomed with favor there decision Of freeze funding of American government for broadcastersthat the Peskov spokesperson has branded how “Media propagandistic, purely propaganda”.
The European Union and the Node of Military Aid
In the context of negotiations, theEuropean Union It is evaluating new support strategies for Ukraine. The high representative for foreign affairs, Kaja Kallasproposed a package of 20-40 billion euros in military aidmeasure that divides member countries.
The Vice -premier and Italian Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajaniunderlined the need to deepen the diplomatic proposals before making definitive decisions. “We must evaluate each scenario, including the possibility of a truce, but also to keep the commitments born“said Tajani, referring to the obligations of military spending equal to 2% of the GDP.
Financial markets and betting on a relaxation
International markets are reacting with interest to the possibility of an ease of tensions. According to the Financial Timessome hedge fund and brokers are examining scenarios in which one reduction of sanctions It could favor Russian assets. The ruble He showed signals of strengthening compared to the dollar in 2024, even if the percentage variations remain uncertain and depend on the fluctuations of the market, a signal that some investors see margins for a change in the relationships between Russia and the West.
Paul McNamara, director of Gam investments, however he warns that “The revocation of the sanctions remains an uncertain hypothesissince it depends on political developments that are still unpredictable “. Despite the interest in Russian bonds currently underestimatedfinancial restrictions continue to limit the market for western investors.
The role of Kazakh Tenge and alternative strategies
With the Russian market still under pressure, some traders are using alternative currencies to get around the restrictions. The Kazako Tenge, thanks to the strong economic ties with Russia, was used as a proxy for Rublo, with weekly exchange volumes between 100 and 200 million dollars.
Another strategy is the use of the non-Deliiverable Forward (NDF), derivative tools that allow you to bet on currencies without having to own them directly. According to Luis Costa, Chief Global Strategist on the emerging markets of Citi, “the market is trying to anticipate every possible loosening of the restrictions, even without certainties”.
What prospects for the future?
The hypothesis of a rapprochement between Washington and Moscow There is still an unknown, but the only debate on a possible diplomatic opening is already influencing market markets and political strategies.
Attention is now focused on the moves of the main western powers and on others NATO summitwhere defense strategies and prospects of a possible fire will be discussed. The question remains open: are we faced with a real opportunity for peace or a new chapter of the geopolitical competition?