Subverting everything that had characterized the last twenty-four hours, American President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah and a “fast-paced” negotiation between the United States and Iran. Before it did so, Tehran said that everything had been suspended and that it would close not only the Strait of Hormuz but also Bab el-Mandeb and Tel Aviv as it prepared to take a piece of Lebanon. Now everything is frozen. Again.
“There will be no troops in Beirut and those on the move will be recalled”
The head of the White House said that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to stop fighting, while talks with Iran continue “at a rapid pace”, despite the negotiations appearing increasingly in difficulty due to the expansion of the Israeli offensive in Lebanon. Trump wrote on social media that he had a “very productive phone call” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who assured him that he would not send troops to the southern suburbs of Beirut, as had previously been threatened. “There will be no troops in Beirut and any troops already on the move have been recalled,” the president wrote.
Trump also claimed that he had also spoken, through high-level representatives, with Hezbollah. “They have accepted that all shooting will stop. Israel will not attack them and they will not attack Israel,” he assured. A few minutes later, in a second message, the US president added that “talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran continue at a rapid pace.”
Strong diplomatic tension
However, Trump’s statements come at a time of strong diplomatic tension. The Iranian Tasnim agency reported that Tehran has suspended dialogue with international mediators in protest against the expansion of the Israeli offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah, a historic ally of the Islamic Republic. The weeks of indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran, accompanied by mutual threats and several waves of air attacks, have so far led neither to the end of the war nor to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic passage through which a significant share of the world’s oil and gas exports from the Gulf passes.
Despite the optimism shown on social media, a few hours earlier Trump had sent very different signals on the future of the talks. In a telephone interview with CNBC he declared that he was not particularly worried about a possible failure of the negotiations. “If they’re finished, they’re finished,” he said. “Frankly, I started to find them very boring.” Interviewed later by NBC News, Trump declared that he had not been informed of the Iranian suspension of the talks, adding however that “we are talking too much”. “I think silence would be a good thing and could last a long time,” he added.
The situation on the ground continues to deteriorate
On the ground, meanwhile, the situation continues to deteriorate. The latest exchange of attacks between the United States and Iran overnight coincided with the expansion of Israel’s ground offensive into Lebanon. Netanyahu vowed to push deeper into the country and ordered the army to again strike what he called “terrorist targets” in Beirut’s southern suburbs. The Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesperson called on the inhabitants of Dahieh to evacuate “to preserve their safety.”
The United States has supported Israeli operations against Hezbollah while continuing to seek a deal with Iran to end the war launched jointly with Israel in late February, reopen Hormuz and impose controls on Iran’s nuclear program. But Iran reiterated on Monday that it had not entered into any negotiations on the nuclear dossier and insisted that Israel must halt its offensive in Lebanon before a broader agreement to end the war can be reached.