Negotiations between the USA and Iran are shaking and leading to a surge in oil prices, as well as sending stock markets into fibrillation on a global scale. The new turbulence was triggered by reports from Tehran that Iranian negotiators would aim to cut off communications with the US, as well as ensure the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s crude oil passes, in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
In New York, WTI futures gained 6%, settling at around $92 a barrel, despite the fact that in May the American benchmark recorded its sharpest monthly decline since April 2025, collapsing by almost 17%. Brent futures, the international benchmark, jumped by 5%, up to 95 dollars. On the stock exchanges, Tokyo (+1%) and Hong Kong (+0.8%) were on the rise with technology stocks. Europe is in the red with Milan (-0.52%), London (-0.68%), Paris (-0.45%) and Frankfurt (-0.40%). Wall Street was mixed, with Dj at -0.04% and Nasdaq at +0.72%, with Nvidia in evidence (+5%) after the announcement of a new processor for personal computers. Yields on Treasuries, the true thermometer of investor moods, also increased: the annual yield rose to 3.814% (+0.024) and the ten-year bond to 4.471% (+0.018). “We will not tolerate an escalation of tensions in Lebanon, the patience of the Iranian armed forces has a limit,” warned Mohsen Rezaei, advisor to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Hormuz “is under the control of Iran and we will not allow the US blockade to continue”, he added on X, reversing a scenario of moderate optimism on the positive conclusion of the negotiations.
After a telephone interview characterized by impatience regarding the possibility of stopping the negotiations (“I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less”), President Donald Trump corrected the point in a post on Truth: «I had a very productive phone call» with «Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and there will be no troops headed to Beirut», then assuring that «talks with Iran are continuing at a rapid pace». The path to negotiations remains bumpy and difficult. Over the weekend, Netanyahu praised his armed forces for capturing Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon, as IDF troops continued to gain ground. In addition, the US and Iran exchanged cross-attacks already over the weekend. Lastly, the US military Central Command reported that American forces intercepted, during the night, two Iranian ballistic missiles which were targeting American forces in Kuwait. “It almost seems like we are taking two steps forward and one step back in the relationship between the US and Iran: however, it is clear that the market does not expect a new acceleration of hostilities such as to bring us back to the situation” of the first two or three weeks of the conflict, Tim Holland of Orion observed on CNBC. In other words, “we are closer to the emergency exit than to entering the motorway,” he added.