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After weeks of acceleration and slowdown, negotiators from the United States and Iran appear to have found an agreement to end the war. The agreement, according to American and Middle Eastern sources cited by Axios, was reached as early as Tuesday and submitted to the Iranian leadership, which said it was ready to sign it. But not Donald Trump: the American president wants to think about it for “a few more days” before making a “final decision”, while Tehran – an Iranian deputy admitted – fears the “unpredictability” of the tycoon, “incapable of respecting the commitments made”.
New attacks in the Strait of Hormuz
In an attempt to speed up the agreement, the Pakistani Foreign Minister and mediator, Ishaq Dar, will meet the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, in Washington. But anything can still happen in the Persian Gulf, once again the scene of mutual attacks: in the night between Wednesday and Thursday, American forces shot down Iranian drones in the Strait of Hormuz and hit a military site in Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran, for the second time in a few days. In response, the Pasdaran announced that they had targeted a US base in the region, without specifying which country, but identified it as Kuwait, which repelled a missile and drone attack. Centcom denounced “a serious violation of the ceasefire”, which still hangs by a thread.
What the memorandum of understanding provides
The memorandum of understanding, waiting on Trump’s desk, provides for a 60-day extension of the truce during which negotiations will have to be started on the Iranian nuclear program, in particular regarding the disposal of the highly enriched uranium (which the American president wants under US custody to be destroyed in Iran or elsewhere), while Tehran already undertakes not to pursue the development of the atomic bomb and to accept the supervision of the IAEA. As already leaked, Iran is expected to clear the waters of Hormuz within 30 days, the Strait will be reopened and maritime transit will return “unlimited”, as before the war but “without any type of toll”. On the other hand, the American naval blockade of Iranian ports will be lifted as freedom of commercial navigation is restored.
The Oman issue and the US warning on tolls
Therefore, no role is envisaged for Oman which in the “Iranian” draft was supposed to manage naval traffic in the Strait together with Tehran. After Trump’s threats to Muscat, Scott Bessent also warned: «Oman must know that the US Treasury will target anyone who tries to facilitate the imposition of tolls for the Strait. Any consenting partner will be sanctioned,” the secretary said, having already adopted restrictions for the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the body created to handle transit requests through Hormuz. At stake remain the 24 billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets, which the Islamic Republic could receive in various phases, and the lifting of the American sanctions imposed on Tehran.
The unknown Lebanon and Netanyahu’s offensive
The final draft circulated in Washington is not very different from the one leaked by Tehran on Wednesday, but in both versions the fate of Lebanon seems to have been overshadowed. Benyamin Netanyahu appears determined to break the table between the American ally and the arch-enemy Iranian and has expanded his offensive against Hezbollah, returning to bomb Beirut as well, despite the veto of the United States which feared a new massacre of civilians, like the one that caused hundreds of deaths in the aftermath of the announcement of the truce on 8 April.
A “targeted attack” by the IDF on the southern outskirts of the Lebanese capital, a stronghold of the militia, hit the home of an Iranian commander, while in southern Lebanon the raids caused at least 14 deaths, including children, on the eve of military talks between the two countries next week in Washington. The Israeli prime minister has also returned to threaten Gaza: “We control 60% of the Strip, but we are aiming for 70%”, he announced, despite the truce agreement last October providing for the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Palestinian enclave.