Investment in human capital. This is the decisive factor “to face the challenges of the future and further strengthens the role of the University”, the heart of the speech with which Fabio Panetta, governor of the Bank of Italy, closes, as guest of honour, the inauguration ceremony of the academic year of the University of Messina. A prolusion from which comes a decisive invitation to invest more in universities, in a country that is aging rapidly and reserves less than 4 percent of GDP for education, “the lowest level among the main economies of the euro area”, making the flight of young people abroad an almost inevitable consequence, rather than a side effect, where, once they have moved from studies to the world of work, as graduates they can earn up to 80 percent more.
Yet the context would be favorable, the growth rates are high, employment “has reached the highest levels ever”, the banking system is “solid”, in the South “after the pandemic, the GDP grew by almost 8 percent”. All progress which, however, “is not sufficient to overcome the structural fragilities accumulated over time”, so much so that “forecasts envisage modest growth in the coming years”. Weaknesses that “translate into persistently weak income and wage dynamics, which have long limited people’s choices and prospects, especially women and young people.”
Investments are needed
Fiscal policies are not enough, argues Panetta, “development based on investments, innovation and productivity is needed”, especially in a country that is aging more and more rapidly (the second country after Japan): “According to the latest demographic projections, by 2050 Italy will lose over 7 million people of working age”, data which makes Panetta say that “the demographic constraint is crucial, a complex issue, which must be addressed on multiple levels”, from policies on regular immigration to those on “low birth rates”. also recently remembered by the President of the Republic. The data, again, are drastic: «In 2024, new births in Italy were 370,000, the lowest level since the post-war period».
Structural fragilities require structural interventions. First of all, underlines the governor, “investments in innovation and human capital, two areas in which the university plays a central role”. If the “excellent results” in the field of research do not translate “into innovative processes, patents, competitive goods and services on global markets”, quality human capital is needed, “training young people is a high-yield investment for society”. But, and this is the most critical point, in Italy “the public resources allocated to education are less than 4 percent of GDP, almost one point less than the European Union average”. Translated: «Half of the gap compared to the rest of the EU reflects the lower investment in university education», so much so that «Italy is the only large European country in which public spending per university student is significantly lower than that allocated to high school». Adjusting spending on university education “would strengthen the quality of the system, enhancing the high skills already present in universities, enhancing technological transfer and creating more favorable conditions for the development of innovative businesses and the attraction of researchers and teachers with an international profile”.
The data
Graduates are increasing (but less than in Germany and France), but the incidence of dropouts is high: “One in two graduates undertakes university studies, but among those enrolled, one in four students interrupts their studies before graduating.” Numbers influenced by income and career prospects: «A thirty-year-old graduate today earns only 20 percent more than a peer with a high school diploma, a difference that is significantly lower than that of the other main European countries». The flight abroad is therefore not surprising, especially if you consider that “a young graduate in Germany earns on average 80 percent more than an Italian peer”, 30 percent in France.
Result: «When young people trained in our universities do not return to the country, the loss affects the entire community», not compensated by graduated immigrants. The role of universities is crucial, as is that of the State: «Investing in education, research and training – concludes Panetta – therefore means investing at the same time in the potential of the country and in the ability of young people to choose, to grow, to contribute to a more dynamic economy and a more just society». Knowledge and innovation, individual commitment and quality of institutions: only in this way do “our societies grow in the contemporary era”.