The declaration signed by the European leaders who took part in the Berlin summit for the first time puts down in black and white some of the commitments agreed within the framework of the Coalition of the Willing regarding the security guarantees to be given to Ukraine when, and if, a peace agreement is reached (which implies Russia’s yes, which is far from a given).
Europe says it is willing to lead a “multinational force” with “the support” of the USA (the famous backstop) even within Ukrainian borders. It is still too early to say who will be part of it, and with what tasks.
What is certain is that Italy, as expected, will not send soldiers to Ukraine, although it has said it is willing to participate in other forms.
Zelensky’s position and the role of the Willing
With the Willing Ones “we have drawn up a document, but we have decided not to share it: after the ceasefire it will be ready and you will see how each capital will contribute”, specified Volodymyr Zelensky.
Over “thirty countries” are willing to contribute to security guarantees – he added – but, precisely, “not all of them with troops” (for example, we are talking about logistics or intelligence). Rome does not exclude a role in the training of Ukrainian forces, but always outside the borders.
Everything adds up, let’s say. But this is certainly not what Ukraine (or even the USA) is focusing on as a priority.
Deterrence, military force and the taboo of confrontation with Moscow
The goal is to avoid another invasion by Moscow and to this end real and tangible deterrence is needed.
The “similar article 5” and the legally binding commitment
Which means breaking the taboo of taboos: a possible military clash with Russia. This is why the rules of engagement will be a key element of the proposal. And here we move on to the similar article 5 of NATO.
The declaration explicitly mentions “a legally binding commitment, subject to national procedures, to take measures to restore peace and security in the event of a future armed attack” with measures that may include “the use of armed force, intelligence and logistical assistance, economic and diplomatic actions”.
Countries ready to send troops and European reserves
The countries that make up the hard core of these security guarantees are undoubtedly France and Great Britain, followed closely by the Baltics and the Nordics (Holland, Denmark, Sweden and Finland). The boots on the ground will come from here.
At the window Germany and Poland, which up to now have expressed reservations. Washington – as far as we know – is however exerting strong pressure.
Pressure from the USA and the change of mentality required of Europe
The USA – as confirmed by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk – says it is ready for “military action” if the Kremlin were to break the agreement, breaking its silence on the subject for the first time.
But in exchange they ask for a real commitment from Europe. In summary. If things get bad we will have to fight alongside the Ukrainians in the trenches and the Americans will not be on the front line: when they say that the Old World must take responsibility for its security they mean precisely this and the change in mentality must start now. The real crux is here. The rest is negotiable.
Russian assets and the ultimate risk to the European order
In this scheme, the hubbub over the use of Russian assets is nothing more than background noise (“distraction,” says one diplomat). The question remains: What benefit would Russia (or China) have in facilitating the creation of such a world order?
Nobody, except gambling: if faced with a new attack in Ukraine, Europe does not have the attributes to really respond, respecting the pact with the USA, then it will be game over.