The conflicting messages coming from Washington and Tehran fuel uncertainty about the next developments in the Gulf war. The negotiation has begun, with a fifteen-point American plan which provides for the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear power plant, the unblocking of Hormuz and, in return, the lifting of sanctions. The proposal, however, was judged “excessive” by the regime, which in turn put its five conditions on the table, keeping the point on the control of the Strait.
Meanwhile, regional mediators are working to organize a high-level meeting as early as the weekend, with Pakistan as the preferred venue. “Negotiations continue”, assured the White House, at the same time issuing a new warning to the ayatollahs: Trump “is not bluffing and is ready to unleash hell” if an agreement is not made. The United States and Iran continue to challenge each other in public dialectics.
On the one hand the commander in chief, who insists on the rhetoric of victory now one step away, and on the other the armed forces of the mullahs, who consider the Americans “in so much trouble that they are negotiating with themselves”.
In essence, however, something is moving, because Washington has leaked into the media what it believes is a compromise proposal. In detail, Tehran must commit to giving up uranium enrichment, entrusting its supplies to the IAEA, and allow international maritime traffic through Hormuz.
In exchange, in addition to the elimination of sanctions, it would obtain not having to give up missile projects, except for limiting their quantity and range. In any case, this dossier would be addressed later.
The Islamic Republic, despite its openness regarding missiles, rejected the American scheme. Internal sources have leaked a counter-proposal which provides for “the cessation of attacks and assassinations, guarantees against future conflicts, the payment of war damages, an end to fighting on all fronts involving allied groups and the recognition of Iranian authority over the Strait of Hormuz”.
Despite the distances on the issues of discussion, the first objective of diplomacy is that the parties begin to speak to each other officially, even indirectly.
American sources have given an account of work by the White House to organize talks over the weekend in Pakistan or alternatively in Türkiye. There is confidence in Islamabad and a “turning point” is hypothesized soon. The negotiating teams are also to be defined.
The theocracy, which should field the powerful speaker of parliament Mohammad Ghalibaf, has made it clear that it does not want to sit at the table with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, guilty of “treason” due to the military attacks that took place a few hours after the talks held in February. Vice President JD Vance is “preferred” to Trump’s two emissaries, having remained largely silent during the conflict because he is faithful to Maga isolationism which does not like wars around the world.
Iranians’ fear that Trump is pretending to negotiate is motivated by reports of a growing American deployment in the region. The US media have spoken of around 7,000 reinforcement units, including 1,000-2,000 paratroopers who would operate in synergy with the marines for two possible broad objectives: to take control of the island of Kharg, the nerve center of Iranian oil, or to reclaim Hormuz by eliminating enemy missile positions along the coast.
“We monitor troop movements, don’t test us”, the words of Ghalibaf, according to whom the US is preparing to “occupy one of our islands with the support of a country in the region”.
And so Tehran’s army has threatened to open a new front in the Strait of Bab el-Mandab, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Israel is also watching diplomatic developments. According to the NYT, the IDF has received orders to make every effort in the next 48 hours to destroy as much of Iran’s weapons industry as possible, before the possible opening of a peace table. Benjamin Netanyahu considers the war “not over yet”.