Tax cuts for 7.9 billion, increased expenses for 14.4 billion: the abacus of the maneuver stopped at 22.3 billion. There will be no more changes. Now on the stage of the maneuver the curtain opens for the last act, with a predictable ending. The budget law arrives today under armored conditions in the Chamber, where everything will be closed in 4 days.
Final vote on December 30th
She remained in the Senate for 63 days for what the Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti himself defined as a ‘tortuous path’. The road is now clear and the parliamentary agenda has set the final vote in the Montecitorio chamber for December 30th, including confidence.
Giorgetti: “Prudent maneuver, not stagnant”
The planned maneuver is ‘prudent, not stagnant’, to use Giorgetti’s words. It aims to keep together the economy of families and businesses on the one hand, and the balance of public finances on the other. There will be no boost to economic growth, which in the government’s estimates will remain at +0.7% in 2026 thanks above all to the last year of Pnrr resources.
Objective: deficit under 3%
The government aims to bring the deficit down to just below 3% as early as 2025, a year early. The result would allow Italy to exit the EU deficit procedure and not consider the growing defense spending to which the European NATO countries have committed themselves in the deficit calculations.
2 euros on non-EU parcels
During the parliamentary examination, especially with the arrival of the government’s latest amendment, the maneuver increased. The threshold for the financial effects stands at 22.3 billion in 2026. The impact remains at 22 billion in 2027 and then declines to 20.6 billion in 2028. The cornerstones have not changed, even if rules intended to impact the habits of Italians have also been introduced, such as the 2 euro tax on purchases of small non-EU parcels up to 150 euros in value.
The Irpef rate
Navigating between the values of the interventions allows you to understand the real impact of the measures. The most important issue is the reduction of the second Irpef rate from 35 to 33%, in the bracket from 28,000 to 50,000 euros. It will be worth 2.9 billion in 2026, around 3 billion from 2027. The greatest impact is from 50 thousand up to 200 thousand euros, a ceiling beyond which the benefits are sterilized by a cut in tax deductions.
Scrapping, tax discount, pensions
As a tax relief, scrapping until 31 December 2023 is also worth a lot: 1.5 billion. The tax discount (5% rate) on increases in contract renewals for incomes under 28,000 euros, which costs 420 million, is worth almost four times less. The reduced rate on performance bonuses, which drops from 5 to 1%, is worth 535 million; the substitute tax on the additional treatment of public workers lightens the levy by 359 million. The partial sterilization of the months that are added to retire (only one instead of three) is expensive, but only from 2027: it impacts the accounts for 1.2 billion.
Family and Healthcare are two other important chapters
Healthcare is refinanced with 2 billion. Among the major chapters, two concern mothers: 630 thousand euros go to supplement the income of workers with two or more children, 225 thousand to encourage their exemption from contributions. The adjustment of the ISEE calculation is financed with 466 million, which excludes the first home now up to 200 thousand euros in large cities. The social card is refinanced with half a billion and for the Inclusion Allowance (Adi) the month of suspension foreseen after the first assignment for 440 million is cancelled.
Single Zes and super-depreciation
Businesses will collect 2.3 billion in 2026 for the Zes Unica tax credit. But the super-depreciation, which has no impact on the accounts in the first year, helps them by 541 million in 2027 and one billion in 2028. Then there are funds for machinery (Sabbatini), for the tourism supply chains and the postponement of the plastic and sugar tax which alone is worth 385 million in the first year.
The accounts of banks, insurance companies and ministries
However, the bills will be paid by banks and ministries: the latter will have 2 billion in cuts but will be able to remodulate expenses. The taxes applied to banks and insurance companies have also been increased: the increase in IRAP alone is worth 1.2-1.3 billion for them. But if you look closely, citizens will also pay for something: there are also 552 million for the increase in excise duties on fuel and another 213 million that will come from the increase in tobacco prices, values higher than the mini-squeeze on short-term rentals, which has been much talked about, which will yield 138 million but only from 2027.