The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is leading all forecasting bodies and governments to revise growth estimates for 2026 downwards with the fear now made clear by everyone that the situation is destined to worsen with the possible continuation of the war in the coming months.
This time it is the OECD that raises the alarm by cutting growth expectations for the global, European and Italian economies, whose GDP is seen growing by just 0.4% this year with inflation rising to 2.4% again in 2026. In all G20 countries, prices are expected to increase by the Parisian institute, a condition that pushes it to invite central banks to remain vigilant on the monetary policy front. With the war in Iran “we are faced with a real shock, which probably goes beyond what we imagine at the moment”.
And the financial markets “are perhaps too optimistic and determined to remain optimistic, in the hope that a positive scenario will occur and a return to normality in a relatively short time” warns the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, interviewed by the Economist. “The paralysis of maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz and the closure or deterioration of energy infrastructure – it is underlined by Paris – have caused a flare-up in energy prices and disrupted the global supply of energy and other important basic products, such as fertilisers”.
According to the OECD, “the scope and duration of the conflict are very uncertain but a prolonged period of increases in energy prices will have the effect of significantly increasing costs for businesses and inflation with harmful consequences for growth”.
There is therefore no shortage of recommendations to member countries to avoid too violent a repercussion of the oil shock. “Any public measure to cushion the impact of rising energy prices should be well targeted on those who need it most,” maintains the OECD. Countries are also advised to ‘reduce energy consumption’. In the longer term, the international body suggests multiplying measures to “improve energy efficiency at the national level and reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels”.
Necessary steps, the organization underlines, to “allow us to reduce exposure to future geopolitical tensions”. The less than encouraging picture of the economy as a whole is also demonstrated by the trend in consumer confidence recorded by Istat. In March 2026, this indicator drops from 97.4 to 92.6 while the composite indicator of business confidence undergoes a marginal reduction (from 97.4 to 97.3).
Among consumers, there is a widespread worsening of opinions, especially those on the economic situation of the country: the economic climate falls from 99.1 to 88.1, the future climate falls from 93.1 to 85.3, the personal climate falls from 96.8 to 94.2 and the current climate decreases from 100.7 to 98.0.
The index – comments Istat – «suffers a marked decline due to a worsening of all the components, with the exception of the variable on the opportunity to save in the current phase. It should be noted that the components which recorded the most accentuated worsening are the opinions and above all the expectations on the general economic situation”. For Codacons and Confesercenti the war is destroying citizens’ trust while for Antonio Misiani, head of Economy in the national secretariat of the Democratic Party, “the new OECD data are an alarm signal that the government cannot ignore”.
Analyzing the data in more detail, the OECD states that growth in Italy is weak and consumption is also decreasing. “We think the PNRR will continue to support growth, at 0.4% this year, and also into next year.
However, Italy’s development estimates were slightly better at the end of 2025, but the increase in energy prices affects consumption and led us to revise our forecasts downwards” says OECD economist, Asa Johansson, while for the secretary general, Mathis Cormann, it is necessary to focus on renewables to ensure energy security: “Increasing the production of renewable energy and energy efficiency can strengthen economic security while improving resilience in the face of future price shocks”.