American President Donald Trump has launched a series of disruptive announcements that herald a sudden closure to the conflict with Iran. Between optimism from the White House, denials from Tehran and Pakistan’s mediation role, the nuclear dossier and maritime security are at a turning point.
Trump: “Agreement in a day or two”
In an exclusive interview with Axios, the tycoon dictated the timing of diplomacy: “I think we will reach an agreement within a day or two.” According to the President, the Iranians are ready for a decisive meeting already over the weekend. Trump also linked the agreement to regional security, stating that “Israel will come out of this with a bang”, while reiterating a clear concept: the bombings in Lebanon must stop immediately. “I will not allow them to continue blowing up buildings,” he declared firmly.
The Three-Page Memorandum: Uranium and Frozen Funds
At the heart of the negotiations in Islamabad — where Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir confirmed progress on “thorny issues” — is a three-page document. Here are the main issues of mediation:
The recovery of uranium: Trump insists on the delivery of enriched stocks (about two tons) to the United States. Tehran would prefer local dilution, but a mixed formula is being considered: part sent to a third country and part diluted under international supervision.
The mystery of the 20 billion: It is the most controversial point. Axios speaks of an unfreezing of about $20 billion in Iranian property as an incentive. Trump denied to Bloomberg a “money exchange”, but analysts clarify the technicality: it would not be new US funds, but the return of Iranian assets already blocked.
Nuclear moratorium: Washington asks for 20 years stop; Tehran offers 5. The compromise could include the use of reactors only for medical purposes and strictly on the surface, dismantling underground sites.
The Tehran wall and the doubt of the Strait
Despite Washington’s optimism, the voices coming from Iran are of the opposite sign. A senior Iranian official, through Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed, called the American demands “illogical and unreasonable”, branding Trump’s announcement on the delivery of uranium as false. The Kremlin also aligned itself with Iranian prudence, denying Axios’ reconstruction. In this stalemate, Trump plays the maximum pressure card: the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked by the US navy until the agreement is signed. “We will recover the uranium at our leisure,” Trump assured, confirming that he could personally travel to Islamabad if the deal were to materialize in the next 48 hours.
The unknowns: missiles and proxies
The shadow remains over Iranian ballistic capabilities and support for groups such as Hezbollah and Houthis. While Israel and Republican “hawks” demand that disarmament include missiles, the current memorandum appears to focus primarily on the nuclear threat and the reopening of trade routes, vital to calming global energy prices. Whether Trump is right or whether it is a psychological pressure maneuver, the facts will tell in the next few hours.